The earlier result I mentioned that appeared to show Nikki Haley had won heavily Amish Holmes County, Ohio, looks to have been a reporting error. The error has been corrected, and updated results from the Associated Press show Trump leading the county 82-11 percent with over 95 percent of the vote reporting.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

Merrin, the last-minute addition to the race, is projected to win the primary in Ohio's 9th District, according to ABC News. He will face incumbent Kaptor. Despite her incumbency, the seat could be tough for the long-serving Democrat to hold onto. As Nathaniel wrote earlier, Republicans in the state redrew the district to make it more Republican. But finding the right candidate has been tough for them: They'll be holding out hope that Merrin, who's been involved in his own intraparty battles in the state, will win this November.

—Monica Potts, 538

In Illinois’s 31st state House District, a battle has been brewing between longtime state representative Mary Flowers and state House Speaker Chris Welch. Flowers was the deputy Democratic leader of the chamber from 2020-2023, but was stripped of her leadership position in May 2023 after allegations of abusive conduct toward other members and staff. This year, Speaker Welch led an effort to oust her from the chamber, directing hundreds of thousands of dollars toward her challenger, Michael Crawford, and encouraging outside groups, particularly unions, to support Crawford.

The effort appears to have paid off: Crawford, an educator and political newcomer, is projected to win, according to the Associated Press. He leads the 19-term congresswoman 70-30 with 64 percent of the vote reporting.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

In Illinois' 12th District, Bost is ahead of challenger Bailey by 10 percentage points, 55 to 45 percent, with 36 percent of the expected vote in. But there's still a lot of vote to be counted in the eastern part of the district, where Bailey is stronger.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

The special election to replace former Rep. Bill Johnson in Ohio’s 6th District has been a relatively low-key affair since the seven-term Republican left office in January. State Sen. Michael Rulli and state Rep. Reggie Stoltzfus are both running in the regularly scheduled primary and the special election primary for the GOP nomination tonight (so is chiropractor Rick Tsai, who has not raised much money and isn’t seen as a contender); the winner will be a shoo-in for both the June 11 special general election and November general election in this safe red district.

Both candidates are tying themselves closely to Trump, and spent the first month of the race airing positive ads. But Rulli, who is backed by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, once had a more moderate reputation in the state Senate when he represented a competitive Youngstown-area seat, while Stoltzfus, who has backing from the socially conservative Family Research Council and Gen. Mike Flynn, has consistently been one of the most conservative members of the state House and has pledged to join the House Freedom Caucus if elected.

In the closing weeks, the race has turned on LGBTQ issues, with Stoltzfus airing ads accusing Rulli of “sponsoring legislation to allow boys in girls’ bathrooms” — a reference to Rulli’s cosponsorship of an LGBTQ anti-discrimination bill (he was one of the only Republicans to back the bill). Rather than lean into his record, Rulli’s allies at Defending Main Street (a wing of the Republican Main Street Partnership) are working to fashion the candidate, who once described himself as “really pro-gay rights” into a conservative outsider who “will stop the Left’s war on children” with respect to transgender issues.

Stoltzfus ($492,000) and Rulli ($479,000) have spent around the same amount of money on ads through March 18, per AdImpact data, with the pro-Rulli Defending Main Street PAC chipping in another $80,000.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections