The GOP primary for Senate in Ohio is, by leaps and bounds, the most expensive Republican primary race of the cycle — and the second-most expensive Senate primary overall this year (after California’s Senate contest). The three major Republican candidates and their allies have spent a combined $41.2 million through March 19.

The spending picture has largely been dominated by Dolan and Moreno, with LaRose, who is not personally wealthy like the other two, unable to keep pace. Dolan has spent $10.6 million on advertising while Moreno has spent $8.5 million. LaRose has not spent money on broadcast TV, cable, over-the-top/streaming or digital ads, according to data from AdImpact.

When it comes to outside spending, Dolan’s allies at the super PACs Buckeye Leadership Fund (which is largely funded by Dolan’s family) and Defend Ohio Values have spent $7 million and $1.7 million, respectively, bringing the pro-Dolan total to $19.3 million in spending.

Moreno’s supporters at the Club for Growth ($5.9 million), Buckeye Values PAC ($1.3 million) and Win It Back PAC ($823,000) — plus $3.3 million from a Democratic super PAC boosting Moreno because they believe he’ll be an easier general election opponent for Brown — bring the pro-Moreno squad’s total ad outlay to just under $20 million.

LaRose, who raised just $2.2 million through the end of February, is relying on support from his allied super PAC, Leadership for Ohio. That group has spent $5.4 million to boost his bid.

Ultimately, LaRose’s lack of access to significant personal funds hindered his ability to capitalize on the early name ID and polling advantage he had as a two-time statewide elected official. Dolan donated $9 million to his campaign out of his own pocket, and Moreno put $4.2 million of his own money into his campaign.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

According to a March SurveyUSA/Ohio Northern University poll, Ohioans are keeping an eye on Trump’s various legal issues. Asked about the four criminal cases separately, at least 85 percent of respondents said they had heard about each case, and at least 62 percent said each case was “important for national politics.” The most well-known and most important case to Ohioans was the federal indictment regarding Jan. 6, which 91 percent of voters said they’d heard of and 69 percent said was important. And in all four cases, a plurality of Ohioans said they think the case should be tried before the election.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

It’s been a tough few years for old-guard establishment Republicans in Ohio. In the 2022 Senate primary, former state GOP chairwoman Jane Timken received a paltry 5.9 percent, even though she was endorsed by numerous GOP heavyweights, including then-incumbent Sen. Rob Portman. That same year, incumbent Gov. Mike DeWine, who is notably more moderate than many of his fellow Ohio Republicans, garnered less than 50 percent of the vote in his own primary against three challengers from the right.

While old-guard and moderate Republicans have still managed to hold onto some of the political reins of power in the state, their wins have frequently relied on support from more Democratic areas. Tonight’s Senate primary results will be an important test for them: This year, Portman and DeWine have both endorsed Dolan, while a phalanx of right-wing figures, including Trump, have thrown their weight behind Moreno. If Dolan can pull out a win, it would be a crucial victory for a group that has seemingly become an endangered species in the state.

—Cooper Burton, 538

On the Republican side, Rep. Mary Miller is the only female incumbent on the ballot tonight. She’s uncontested in her primary and likely to hold onto her deep-red seat in the 15th District in central Illinois. Four other Illinois women are running to be the Republican nominees in deep-blue districts around Chicago. Two of them are running unopposed in the primary, but should any of them win, they’re almost certain to lose in November.

In Ohio, most of the women on the ballot face long odds to victory tonight, including Kim Georgeton, running in a crowded open race for the solidly Republican 2nd District; Elayne Cross, one of two candidates challenging 14th District incumbent Rep. Dave Joyce from the right; and Kay Rogers, a former Butler County auditor who resigned in 2008 and spent two years in prison after pleading guilty to conspiracy to commit bank and mail fraud, is taking on incumbent Rep. Warren Davidson in the 8th District.

—Monica Potts, 538

The special election to replace former Rep. Bill Johnson in Ohio’s 6th District has been a relatively low-key affair since the seven-term Republican left office in January. State Sen. Michael Rulli and state Rep. Reggie Stoltzfus are both running in the regularly scheduled primary and the special election primary for the GOP nomination tonight (so is chiropractor Rick Tsai, who has not raised much money and isn’t seen as a contender); the winner will be a shoo-in for both the June 11 special general election and November general election in this safe red district.

Both candidates are tying themselves closely to Trump, and spent the first month of the race airing positive ads. But Rulli, who is backed by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, once had a more moderate reputation in the state Senate when he represented a competitive Youngstown-area seat, while Stoltzfus, who has backing from the socially conservative Family Research Council and Gen. Mike Flynn, has consistently been one of the most conservative members of the state House and has pledged to join the House Freedom Caucus if elected.

In the closing weeks, the race has turned on LGBTQ issues, with Stoltzfus airing ads accusing Rulli of “sponsoring legislation to allow boys in girls’ bathrooms” — a reference to Rulli’s cosponsorship of an LGBTQ anti-discrimination bill (he was one of the only Republicans to back the bill). Rather than lean into his record, Rulli’s allies at Defending Main Street (a wing of the Republican Main Street Partnership) are working to fashion the candidate, who once described himself as “really pro-gay rights” into a conservative outsider who “will stop the Left’s war on children” with respect to transgender issues.

Stoltzfus ($492,000) and Rulli ($479,000) have spent around the same amount of money on ads through March 18, per AdImpact data, with the pro-Rulli Defending Main Street PAC chipping in another $80,000.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections