Illinois and Ohio primaries 2024: Trump-backed Senate candidate prevails in Ohio primary
538 tracked key House and Senate races, including a California special election.
November’s presidential matchup may be set, but Democrats and Republicans still need to decide who will run in hundreds of downballot races (e.g., for Senate and House) this fall. A batch of these contests were decided on Tuesday, March 19.
Tuesday was primary day in Ohio and Illinois, and in the biggest contest of the day, Republicans chose former President Donald Trump's endorsee Bernie Moreno as their candidate in Ohio’s U.S. Senate race. It was a good night for other Trump endorsees too, as Derek Merrin prevailed in the GOP primary for Ohio's 9th Congressional District, while incumbent Mike Bost is leading his challenger in Illinois's 12th District, as of early Wednesday morning. Plus, a special election in California could have immediate implications for House Republicans’ razor-thin majority.
538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
The intraparty battles shaping Ohio state House races
In the Ohio House of Representatives, a speaker battle from last year is playing out in the GOP state legislative primaries tonight.
Republicans have veto-proof majorities in both chambers. But when it came time to elect a speaker at the start of the term last year, a moderate Republican, state Rep. Jason Stephens, beat a far-right candidate, Derek Merrin, in a surprising upset thanks to backing from the chamber’s Democrats and 22 Republicans (including Stephens himself). As speaker, Stephens has control over which bills make it to the floor, and Democrats backed him in exchange for support on some of their policy priorities. Meanwhile, the conservative wing of the party censured those 22 members, dubbing them the “Blue 22.”
This year, Merrin himself is term-limited and running in the 9th Congressional District , while the conservatives who backed him for speaker are now backing challengers against half of the pro-Stephens Republicans. National groups have also stepped in to back these challengers, telling the Statehouse News Bureau that they don't want to just elect Republicans; they also want to support a "bold conservative policy agenda." Adding yet another dynamic to the conflict, the current state Senate President Matt Huffman, a conservative who is also term-limited in the Senate, has jumped into the fray and is running unopposed for a state House seat. He has signaled that he wants to be speaker, and donated to the incumbents who backed Merrin in the speaker fight.
The tug-of-war between the far-right and more moderate members of the Republican Party is playing out in states around the country, and, in some cases, among far-right members themselves. Some of the infighting is centered over what happened in 2020 and the false claim that Trump actually won, and could seriously weaken the state parties heading into competitive general election contests in states like Michigan, Arizona and Georgia. In safe-red Ohio, the consequences could be more localized, but the speaker race, for example, will have a major impact on the kinds of bills the state legislature tries to pass next year around divisive issues like abortion or redistricting.
—Monica Potts, 538
Big spending in Ohio’s Republican Senate primary
The GOP primary for Senate in Ohio is, by leaps and bounds, the most expensive Republican primary race of the cycle — and the second-most expensive Senate primary overall this year (after California’s Senate contest). The three major Republican candidates and their allies have spent a combined $41.2 million through March 19.
The spending picture has largely been dominated by Dolan and Moreno, with LaRose, who is not personally wealthy like the other two, unable to keep pace. Dolan has spent $10.6 million on advertising while Moreno has spent $8.5 million. LaRose has not spent money on broadcast TV, cable, over-the-top/streaming or digital ads, according to data from AdImpact.
When it comes to outside spending, Dolan’s allies at the super PACs Buckeye Leadership Fund (which is largely funded by Dolan’s family) and Defend Ohio Values have spent $7 million and $1.7 million, respectively, bringing the pro-Dolan total to $19.3 million in spending.
Moreno’s supporters at the Club for Growth ($5.9 million), Buckeye Values PAC ($1.3 million) and Win It Back PAC ($823,000) — plus $3.3 million from a Democratic super PAC boosting Moreno because they believe he’ll be an easier general election opponent for Brown — bring the pro-Moreno squad’s total ad outlay to just under $20 million.
LaRose, who raised just $2.2 million through the end of February, is relying on support from his allied super PAC, Leadership for Ohio. That group has spent $5.4 million to boost his bid.
Ultimately, LaRose’s lack of access to significant personal funds hindered his ability to capitalize on the early name ID and polling advantage he had as a two-time statewide elected official. Dolan donated $9 million to his campaign out of his own pocket, and Moreno put $4.2 million of his own money into his campaign.
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections
Ohio voters are paying attention to Trump’s indictments
According to a March SurveyUSA/Ohio Northern University poll, Ohioans are keeping an eye on Trump’s various legal issues. Asked about the four criminal cases separately, at least 85 percent of respondents said they had heard about each case, and at least 62 percent said each case was “important for national politics.” The most well-known and most important case to Ohioans was the federal indictment regarding Jan. 6, which 91 percent of voters said they’d heard of and 69 percent said was important. And in all four cases, a plurality of Ohioans said they think the case should be tried before the election.
—Mary Radcliffe, 538
How much clout does Ohio’s Republican establishment still have?
It’s been a tough few years for old-guard establishment Republicans in Ohio. In the 2022 Senate primary, former state GOP chairwoman Jane Timken received a paltry 5.9 percent, even though she was endorsed by numerous GOP heavyweights, including then-incumbent Sen. Rob Portman. That same year, incumbent Gov. Mike DeWine, who is notably more moderate than many of his fellow Ohio Republicans, garnered less than 50 percent of the vote in his own primary against three challengers from the right.
While old-guard and moderate Republicans have still managed to hold onto some of the political reins of power in the state, their wins have frequently relied on support from more Democratic areas. Tonight’s Senate primary results will be an important test for them: This year, Portman and DeWine have both endorsed Dolan, while a phalanx of right-wing figures, including Trump, have thrown their weight behind Moreno. If Dolan can pull out a win, it would be a crucial victory for a group that has seemingly become an endangered species in the state.
—Cooper Burton, 538
The curious case of Derek Myers
For those of you who aren't familiar with Derek Myers, the 31-year-old who accidentally sent out a concession statement several hours before polls closed, you're in for a real treat. The Cincinnati Enquirer recently wrote a pretty comprehensive expose into his past legal troubles, which is definitely worth reading (especially given that Myers has filed a libel suit against the paper).
Also worth reading is Myers' response to the reporters who wrote the article, which the Enquirer published in full and which included such gems as when Myers says he once told a deputy who pulled him over for speeding that he "was not trained enough to handle someone of Derek's caliber," and later tells the reporter, "you are playing in dangerous waters, my little friend."
If that's not enough for you, Myers previously made news last year for his brief stint working for embattled New York Rep. George Santos, who he accused of sexual harassment.
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections