You didn’t think we’d forget, did you, dear reader? In Florida, Illinois and Ohio, ABC News is projecting that Trump and Biden have won their primaries.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

Pretty much nothing that happens tonight will alter the view that the GOP is unmistakably Trump's party. Even if a Trump endorsee were to lose, the party is clearly behind Trump and most Republican candidates have aligned themselves with him. That's the recipe to generally appeal to GOP voters. It's true that Dolan could conceivably win the Republican Senate primary in Ohio, but if he does, it'll likely be with a small plurality around 40 percent. The majority of the party will be with the Trump-endorsed candidate (Moreno) or the one who has more closely aligned himself with Trump (LaRose) in what looks to have been a failed effort to win the primary.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

I've been keeping a close eye on Trump's Truth Social account, and one thing I noticed this time around is that his endorsement of Merrin in Ohio's 9th came fairly late in the game. He endorsed Moreno on December 19, but he didn't issue an endorsement in the 9th until yesterday afternoon!

Now, there may be reasons Trump waited to make an endorsement in the race. A key Trump ally in the state, Rep. Jim Jordan, had already endorsed Riedel, so maybe Trump was trying not to get on his bad side. But the fact that he waited so long will almost certainly diminish the impact of the endorsement with voters.

When it comes to the Senate race, Tia, the fact that it's as close as it appears to be even given Trump's endorsement may already tell us something about his impact in these sorts of races. The non-MAGA establishment obviously still holds significant sway among voters, at least in Ohio.

All that is a long-winded way of saying that I'm not sure Trump is showing much strength with his Ohio endorsements. The races are very close, so whatever he's doing hasn't seemed to impact the electorate as much as he would probably hope to.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

The result in Ohio's Senate primary is probably the most germane to Trump's influence in the party (or at least among the primary electorate) because Dolan alone has sometimes distanced himself from Trump. Now, he's decidedly less Trump-skeptical this time around than he was in 2022, but he's still the closest thing to a more pre-Trump traditional politician in any of these races. Moreno, meanwhile, was an also-ran until Trump picked him as his champion. (He flunked out of the 2022 race despite self-funding.) If Trump can push him to a win like he did J.D. Vance two years ago, that's a sign of strength. In the other contests, I'm not sure there's much to be gleaned. Mike Bost and Darren Bailey are both running very Trump-heavy campaigns. Bailey wasn't endorsed by Trump, but still features him in his ads! Not sure it says much if that's a winning message. And in Ohio's 9th, Merrin may have the endorsement, but Riedel has been working overtime to show his loyalty after those embarrassing clips leaked. Plus, Merrin's only had the endorsement for a few days, and it hasn't featured in any TV ads in the race.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

In the Ohio House of Representatives, a speaker battle from last year is playing out in the GOP state legislative primaries tonight.

Republicans have veto-proof majorities in both chambers. But when it came time to elect a speaker at the start of the term last year, a moderate Republican, state Rep. Jason Stephens, beat a far-right candidate, Derek Merrin, in a surprising upset thanks to backing from the chamber’s Democrats and 22 Republicans (including Stephens himself). As speaker, Stephens has control over which bills make it to the floor, and Democrats backed him in exchange for support on some of their policy priorities. Meanwhile, the conservative wing of the party censured those 22 members, dubbing them the “Blue 22.”

This year, Merrin himself is term-limited and running in the 9th Congressional District , while the conservatives who backed him for speaker are now backing challengers against half of the pro-Stephens Republicans. National groups have also stepped in to back these challengers, telling the Statehouse News Bureau that they don't want to just elect Republicans; they also want to support a "bold conservative policy agenda." Adding yet another dynamic to the conflict, the current state Senate President Matt Huffman, a conservative who is also term-limited in the Senate, has jumped into the fray and is running unopposed for a state House seat. He has signaled that he wants to be speaker, and donated to the incumbents who backed Merrin in the speaker fight.

The tug-of-war between the far-right and more moderate members of the Republican Party is playing out in states around the country, and, in some cases, among far-right members themselves. Some of the infighting is centered over what happened in 2020 and the false claim that Trump actually won, and could seriously weaken the state parties heading into competitive general election contests in states like Michigan, Arizona and Georgia. In safe-red Ohio, the consequences could be more localized, but the speaker race, for example, will have a major impact on the kinds of bills the state legislature tries to pass next year around divisive issues like abortion or redistricting.

—Monica Potts, 538