In Ohio's 13th District, former state Sen. Kevin Coughlin is projected to win, according to ABC News. With 27 percent of the expected vote reporting, Coughlin is way out ahead with 67 percent of the vote, putting him well ahead of Hudson City Councilor Chris Banweg, who has 26 percent. Coughlin had a slight fundraising edge over Banweg, but it wasn't evident coming into the election if one candidate had a clear upper hand. Turns out, Coughlin did. Now he'll face Democratic Rep. Emilia Sykes in the purple seat that sits around Akron, south of Cleveland, one that Biden would have only carried by 3 percentage points in 2020.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

As Cooper mentioned earlier, the Chicago tax reform measure supported by Mayor Johnson is currently behind: With 66 percent of the expected vote in, "no" leads 54 to 46 percent, according to the Associated Press. In another blow to Chicago-area progressives, their preferred candidate is also behind in the Cook County State's Attorney election. According to the Associated Press, progressive Clayton Harris III is losing 52 to 48 percent to moderate retired Judge Eileen O'Neill Burke, with 73 percent of the expected vote counted.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

In Illinois's 6th District, ABC News reports that Manoor Ahmad is projected to lose against incumbent Sean Casten. With a little more than half of the expected vote in, she's gotten about 15 percent of the vote. Ahmad, who was born in Pakistan, had advocated for a permanent cease-fire in the Israel-Hamas War. She'd also endorsed Rep. Ro Khanna's "Poltiical Reform Resolution" and increased federal spending on immigration lawyers and judges as immigration reform. Meanwhile, Casten joined a resolution condeming the Oct. 7 attacks and declaring support for Israel at the beginning of the conflict, but has also called for humanitarian pauses and outlined the accountability he feels is necessary for a cease-fire.

Progressive activist Kina Collins and Chicago City Treasurer Melissa Conyears-Ervin are also projected to lose their bids challenging incumbent Danny Davis in Illinois's 7th District. With over 60 percent of the expected vote reporting, Davis has 52 percent of the vote to Conyears-Ervin's 21 percent and Collins's 19 percent. Davis is almost certain to hold his seat this fall in the safe blue district.

—Monica Potts, 538

With 39 percent of the expected vote in, Merrin is slightly ahead in the 9th District with 45 percent of the vote so far, and Riedel is at 42 percent. As my colleagues chatted about earlier, the 9th may be one of the tests of Trump's strength when it comes to swaying voters in the primaries, at least. While his endorsement of Merrin came late in the game, part of the reason Merrin was recruited was because Riedel, the party's previous pick, had been caught being slightly critical of Trump. It's not just a question of whether Trump has remade the party in his image: It's also about whether it tolerates dissent.

—Monica Potts, 538

California held its statewide primary for president and downballot races on March 5, but it still gets to join in on the March 19 fun. There’s a special election in the 20th Congressional District to fill the vacancy left by former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who resigned his seat at the end of 2023. The solidly red seat is all but guaranteed to elect a Republican, but the main question is whether the special will produce a winner today or necessitate a runoff.

That’s because California special elections don’t work exactly like its regular top-two primary elections. Instead, they operate similarly to Louisiana’s jungle primary system. All candidates, regardless of party, run together in a first round — the race happening today — and if one candidate wins a majority, that candidate is elected. But if no candidate wins a majority, a runoff takes place between the top two candidates. Should no one surpass 50 percent today, the two leading contenders will meet on May 21.

In some ways, the March 5 top-two primary served as a dry run for the special because the leading candidates in that race are also on the special election ballot. The favorite is probably Republican state Assemblymember Vince Fong, who led all candidates with 42 percent of the primary vote two weeks ago. Fong is viewed as McCarthy’s hand-picked successor, and he also has Trump’s endorsement. Fellow Republican Tulare County Sheriff Mike Boudreaux narrowly grabbed the second November spot with 24 percent in the primary, so he’s probably the second-most likely candidate to win or advance to a runoff. But in the primary, Boudreaux only ran a little ahead of Democrat Marisa Wood, who won 21 percent, so she could finish ahead of Boudreaux in the special. This is especially true considering that Republican turnout may not be as high today as it was on March 5 because the special won’t coincide with a much-watched GOP presidential primary.

Differences between the set of candidates running in the special and those who ran in the regular primary could also cause consequential shifts in vote share. Four minor Republicans not running in the special won about 5 percent in the primary, while a minor Democrat not running in the special won about 3 percent. Should this support line up more behind the leading contenders in each party, Fong would find himself closer to a majority to win outright, while Wood might overtake Boudreaux for the second spot in a potential runoff. Moreover, voters know how the primary result played out, so that could influence them to consolidate behind the leading candidates. Still, six other lesser candidates are on the special election ballot, so even if they don’t win much of the vote, what share they do take could still help influence the special’s outcome.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538