You didn’t think we’d forget, did you, dear reader? In Florida, Illinois and Ohio, ABC News is projecting that Trump and Biden have won their primaries.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

Pretty much nothing that happens tonight will alter the view that the GOP is unmistakably Trump's party. Even if a Trump endorsee were to lose, the party is clearly behind Trump and most Republican candidates have aligned themselves with him. That's the recipe to generally appeal to GOP voters. It's true that Dolan could conceivably win the Republican Senate primary in Ohio, but if he does, it'll likely be with a small plurality around 40 percent. The majority of the party will be with the Trump-endorsed candidate (Moreno) or the one who has more closely aligned himself with Trump (LaRose) in what looks to have been a failed effort to win the primary.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

I've been keeping a close eye on Trump's Truth Social account, and one thing I noticed this time around is that his endorsement of Merrin in Ohio's 9th came fairly late in the game. He endorsed Moreno on December 19, but he didn't issue an endorsement in the 9th until yesterday afternoon!

Now, there may be reasons Trump waited to make an endorsement in the race. A key Trump ally in the state, Rep. Jim Jordan, had already endorsed Riedel, so maybe Trump was trying not to get on his bad side. But the fact that he waited so long will almost certainly diminish the impact of the endorsement with voters.

When it comes to the Senate race, Tia, the fact that it's as close as it appears to be even given Trump's endorsement may already tell us something about his impact in these sorts of races. The non-MAGA establishment obviously still holds significant sway among voters, at least in Ohio.

All that is a long-winded way of saying that I'm not sure Trump is showing much strength with his Ohio endorsements. The races are very close, so whatever he's doing hasn't seemed to impact the electorate as much as he would probably hope to.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

The result in Ohio's Senate primary is probably the most germane to Trump's influence in the party (or at least among the primary electorate) because Dolan alone has sometimes distanced himself from Trump. Now, he's decidedly less Trump-skeptical this time around than he was in 2022, but he's still the closest thing to a more pre-Trump traditional politician in any of these races. Moreno, meanwhile, was an also-ran until Trump picked him as his champion. (He flunked out of the 2022 race despite self-funding.) If Trump can push him to a win like he did J.D. Vance two years ago, that's a sign of strength. In the other contests, I'm not sure there's much to be gleaned. Mike Bost and Darren Bailey are both running very Trump-heavy campaigns. Bailey wasn't endorsed by Trump, but still features him in his ads! Not sure it says much if that's a winning message. And in Ohio's 9th, Merrin may have the endorsement, but Riedel has been working overtime to show his loyalty after those embarrassing clips leaked. Plus, Merrin's only had the endorsement for a few days, and it hasn't featured in any TV ads in the race.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

California held its statewide primary for president and downballot races on March 5, but it still gets to join in on the March 19 fun. There’s a special election in the 20th Congressional District to fill the vacancy left by former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who resigned his seat at the end of 2023. The solidly red seat is all but guaranteed to elect a Republican, but the main question is whether the special will produce a winner today or necessitate a runoff.

That’s because California special elections don’t work exactly like its regular top-two primary elections. Instead, they operate similarly to Louisiana’s jungle primary system. All candidates, regardless of party, run together in a first round — the race happening today — and if one candidate wins a majority, that candidate is elected. But if no candidate wins a majority, a runoff takes place between the top two candidates. Should no one surpass 50 percent today, the two leading contenders will meet on May 21.

In some ways, the March 5 top-two primary served as a dry run for the special because the leading candidates in that race are also on the special election ballot. The favorite is probably Republican state Assemblymember Vince Fong, who led all candidates with 42 percent of the primary vote two weeks ago. Fong is viewed as McCarthy’s hand-picked successor, and he also has Trump’s endorsement. Fellow Republican Tulare County Sheriff Mike Boudreaux narrowly grabbed the second November spot with 24 percent in the primary, so he’s probably the second-most likely candidate to win or advance to a runoff. But in the primary, Boudreaux only ran a little ahead of Democrat Marisa Wood, who won 21 percent, so she could finish ahead of Boudreaux in the special. This is especially true considering that Republican turnout may not be as high today as it was on March 5 because the special won’t coincide with a much-watched GOP presidential primary.

Differences between the set of candidates running in the special and those who ran in the regular primary could also cause consequential shifts in vote share. Four minor Republicans not running in the special won about 5 percent in the primary, while a minor Democrat not running in the special won about 3 percent. Should this support line up more behind the leading contenders in each party, Fong would find himself closer to a majority to win outright, while Wood might overtake Boudreaux for the second spot in a potential runoff. Moreover, voters know how the primary result played out, so that could influence them to consolidate behind the leading candidates. Still, six other lesser candidates are on the special election ballot, so even if they don’t win much of the vote, what share they do take could still help influence the special’s outcome.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538