Polls are now closed in the Golden State, where a special election is taking place to fill the seat of former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy for the remainder of his term. State Assemblymember Vince Fong led in the regular top-two primary two weeks ago, and is favored to ultimately win this race as well. But results in California usually take quite a while to fully come in since a large proportion of voters vote by mail. And it might not end with today's contest either: If no candidate receives more than 50 percent of the vote today, the top two vote-getters will advance to a special general election in May.

—Cooper Burton, 538

Moreno’s nomination in Ohio continues a trend of Republicans entrusting their Senate hopes to a coterie of very wealthy men (and one woman, Nella Domenici in New Mexico). In almost every single competitive Senate race, the likely Republican nominee is a politically inexperienced but very wealthy man, each of whom is self-funding to some degree. While Moreno isn’t as wealthy as Tim Sheehy in Montana, Eric Hovde in Wisconsin or Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania, he certainly fits the mold. And if Republicans come up short in their efforts to flip the chamber this fall, I think there will be a lot of focus on how the party eschewed candidates with experience winning races in favor of neophytes, especially when Democrats have such strong incumbents.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

Of the 29 anti-abortion Republican candidates we're tracking, 15 have been projected to win per ABC News, including 6 incumbents. Twelve challengers are projected to lose their races (though, of course, many were running in the same contests, like the crowded Ohio 2nd District race). In the only race on this list that's not yet projected, Illinois's 12th District, incumbent Mike Bost is leading Darren Bailey — both are on the list. With abortion shaping up to be an important issue in the fall, these candidates have all made pro-life statements without saying abortion should be left to the states. That could signal their willingness to support a national abortion ban, as some Republican and national anti-abortion groups are advocating for.

—Monica Potts, 538

In Ohio’s 6th District, Michael Rulli is projected to defeat Reggie Stoltzfus in the Republican primary, according to ABC News. Rulli currently leads by about 9 percentage points in the regularly scheduled primary and 8 points in the special election primary to succeed Rep. Bill Johnson, with over 80 percent of the expected vote reporting in each. Because the district is solidly Republican, Rulli will likely be the next member of Congress. A special election in a few months will send him to D.C., where he’ll fill out the remainder of Johnson’s term.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

California held its statewide primary for president and downballot races on March 5, but it still gets to join in on the March 19 fun. There’s a special election in the 20th Congressional District to fill the vacancy left by former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who resigned his seat at the end of 2023. The solidly red seat is all but guaranteed to elect a Republican, but the main question is whether the special will produce a winner today or necessitate a runoff.

That’s because California special elections don’t work exactly like its regular top-two primary elections. Instead, they operate similarly to Louisiana’s jungle primary system. All candidates, regardless of party, run together in a first round — the race happening today — and if one candidate wins a majority, that candidate is elected. But if no candidate wins a majority, a runoff takes place between the top two candidates. Should no one surpass 50 percent today, the two leading contenders will meet on May 21.

In some ways, the March 5 top-two primary served as a dry run for the special because the leading candidates in that race are also on the special election ballot. The favorite is probably Republican state Assemblymember Vince Fong, who led all candidates with 42 percent of the primary vote two weeks ago. Fong is viewed as McCarthy’s hand-picked successor, and he also has Trump’s endorsement. Fellow Republican Tulare County Sheriff Mike Boudreaux narrowly grabbed the second November spot with 24 percent in the primary, so he’s probably the second-most likely candidate to win or advance to a runoff. But in the primary, Boudreaux only ran a little ahead of Democrat Marisa Wood, who won 21 percent, so she could finish ahead of Boudreaux in the special. This is especially true considering that Republican turnout may not be as high today as it was on March 5 because the special won’t coincide with a much-watched GOP presidential primary.

Differences between the set of candidates running in the special and those who ran in the regular primary could also cause consequential shifts in vote share. Four minor Republicans not running in the special won about 5 percent in the primary, while a minor Democrat not running in the special won about 3 percent. Should this support line up more behind the leading contenders in each party, Fong would find himself closer to a majority to win outright, while Wood might overtake Boudreaux for the second spot in a potential runoff. Moreover, voters know how the primary result played out, so that could influence them to consolidate behind the leading candidates. Still, six other lesser candidates are on the special election ballot, so even if they don’t win much of the vote, what share they do take could still help influence the special’s outcome.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538