One under-the-radar race today is the Republican primary in Ohio’s 2nd District, which is tantamount to that seat’s general election given how red this seat is. Eleven Republicans are vying to replace retiring Rep. Brad Wenstrup, but three businessmen have used their wallets to stand out from the crowd. Concrete business owner David Taylor has loaned his own campaign $1.7 million, while Larry Kidd, who owns a hiring agency, has invested $1.3 million in the race. Meanwhile, Dunkin’ Donuts and LaRosa’s Pizzeria franchisee Tim O’Hara has spun up the third-most dough after self-funding $1.2 million.

Two state legislators are also running. State Sen. Niraj Antani has raised a respectable $671,000, but his district doesn’t overlap at all with the 2nd District, according to Daily Kos. State Sen. Shane Wilkin, by contrast, already represents 33 percent of the 2nd District, but he has raised only $146,000. If we had to pick a favorite here, it would probably be Taylor given that he has the most money and he’s the only major candidate from Clermont County, by far the most vote-rich county in the district. There are no runoffs in Ohio, so whoever finishes first in the primary will become the nominee even if they win just a bare plurality.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

In the past three elections women have set records for representation in Congress, and when the 118th Congress was sworn in last January they held 28 percent of seats, the highest percentage ever. Of course, Vice President Kamala Harris holds the highest federal office a woman has ever held, and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley became the first Republican woman to win a GOP nominating contest this year when she won the races in Washington, D.C., and Vermont. Whether and how women continue to make progress in this election cycle is still being decided this primary season.

Across the primaries in Illinois and Ohio, 17 Democratic women are running for seats in Congress, including nine incumbents.

That list includes some big races. Among them is the race for Illinois’s 7th Congressional District, which includes parts of Chicago, where 28-year incumbent Democratic Rep. Danny Davis’s two biggest challengers are women. As Kaleigh mentioned earlier, his biggest threat is Kina Collins, a progressive activist who challenged Davis in 2020 and 2022, running to his left on issues like gun violence prevention and health care reform. She came within 7 percentage points of Davis in 2022, earning 46 percent of the vote to his 52, and has a higher profile this year and more funding from national groups. Another major candidate is Melissa Conyears-Ervin, who’s now serving as Chicago’s treasurer and has been endorsed by the Chicago teacher’s union. Conyears-Evans also faces an ethics probe after firing whistleblowers who accused her of ethics violations and misuse of public resources. Both women are attacking Davis’s age — he is 82 — while Davis says his constituents benefit from his seniority.

Meanwhile, in Ohio’s 9th District, 41-year incumbent Rep. Marcy Kaptur, the longest-serving woman in Congress, is running unopposed in her Democratic primary, but will face a general election challenge from whomever wins today’s wide-open Republican primary. As Nathaniel noted in his race preview, redistricting after the 2020 census made Kaptur’s district more Republican, but the [withdrawal this year](] of far-right candidate J.R. Majewski, whom she beat in 2022, could give the winning Republican in today’s contest a better chance at unseating Kaptur.

—Monica Potts, 538

Two members of Congress, a Democrat from a deep blue seat and a Republican from a deep red one, are facing challenges in their primary races tonight. Both are leading in the polls for their respective races, but not enough to deem these elections all sewn up. You can read more about these races and others worth watching tonight in Ohio and California in our preview from yesterday, but here are the deets on the two potential dethronings in the Land of Lincoln.

When 82-year-old Democratic Rep. Danny Davis was first elected in the 7th District around Chicago, Kina Collins — the progressive challenger giving Davis a run for his seat tonight — wasn’t even old enough to vote. There are three other candidates in the race too — one, Chicago City Treasurer Melissa Conyears-Ervin, has outraised both Collins and Davis — but Collins, a community organizer and gun-control advocate, is probably the incumbent’s steepest competition. She came within 7 points of ousting Davis in 2022. However, Davis has the backing of Illinois’s Democratic elite, including Gov. J.B. Pritzker, Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson and Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle, and was leading in a poll from December, so it may not be curtains for the congressman just yet.

Meanwhile, southern Illinois’s 12th District also has an exciting race as Republican Rep. Mike Bost faces off against former state Sen. Darren Bailey, the Republican nominee for governor in 2022. In this district, the reddest in the state, Bailey and Bost have been flaunting their conservative bona fides in an attempt to out-MAGA one another and prove who is further right. Both candidates were endorsed by Trump in 2022, and both have deeply conservative views on issues like abortion, immigration and guns. In this race, Trump has endorsed Bost. Still, the two are polling closely, and whoever wins this primary will be all but guaranteed a seat in Congress, so it’s definitely one to keep an eye on.

—Kaleigh Rogers, 538

Since the 2022 Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade, abortion has been a major issue in U.S. politics — usually to Democrats’ benefit. Many Republicans have taken anti-abortion stances that are unpopular with the general public (though perhaps not with a GOP primary electorate).

In order to track how those candidates fare this year, we at 538 are keeping a list of every Senate, House and gubernatorial candidate this year who presents themself as an opponent of abortion. There’s no perfect way to measure this, but we’re doing so by searching campaign websites for the phrases “pro-life,” “sanctity of life,” “right to life,” “no abortion,” “against abortion” and “unborn” (excluding candidates who say these things but also say that abortion policy should be left to the states). Throughout the year, we’ll be tracking how these candidates fare in both primaries and the general election. Here’s a list of those who are on the ballot today.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

California held its statewide primary for president and downballot races on March 5, but it still gets to join in on the March 19 fun. There’s a special election in the 20th Congressional District to fill the vacancy left by former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who resigned his seat at the end of 2023. The solidly red seat is all but guaranteed to elect a Republican, but the main question is whether the special will produce a winner today or necessitate a runoff.

That’s because California special elections don’t work exactly like its regular top-two primary elections. Instead, they operate similarly to Louisiana’s jungle primary system. All candidates, regardless of party, run together in a first round — the race happening today — and if one candidate wins a majority, that candidate is elected. But if no candidate wins a majority, a runoff takes place between the top two candidates. Should no one surpass 50 percent today, the two leading contenders will meet on May 21.

In some ways, the March 5 top-two primary served as a dry run for the special because the leading candidates in that race are also on the special election ballot. The favorite is probably Republican state Assemblymember Vince Fong, who led all candidates with 42 percent of the primary vote two weeks ago. Fong is viewed as McCarthy’s hand-picked successor, and he also has Trump’s endorsement. Fellow Republican Tulare County Sheriff Mike Boudreaux narrowly grabbed the second November spot with 24 percent in the primary, so he’s probably the second-most likely candidate to win or advance to a runoff. But in the primary, Boudreaux only ran a little ahead of Democrat Marisa Wood, who won 21 percent, so she could finish ahead of Boudreaux in the special. This is especially true considering that Republican turnout may not be as high today as it was on March 5 because the special won’t coincide with a much-watched GOP presidential primary.

Differences between the set of candidates running in the special and those who ran in the regular primary could also cause consequential shifts in vote share. Four minor Republicans not running in the special won about 5 percent in the primary, while a minor Democrat not running in the special won about 3 percent. Should this support line up more behind the leading contenders in each party, Fong would find himself closer to a majority to win outright, while Wood might overtake Boudreaux for the second spot in a potential runoff. Moreover, voters know how the primary result played out, so that could influence them to consolidate behind the leading candidates. Still, six other lesser candidates are on the special election ballot, so even if they don’t win much of the vote, what share they do take could still help influence the special’s outcome.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538