I mentioned earlier that Merrin had been involved in a speaker fight in Ohio that he lost when another candidate, Stephens, won the backing of Democrats to hold a more moderate speakership. Twenty-two Republicans in the state House joined in voting for Stephens, including Stephens himself, and were dubbed the Blue 22. They were censured by the state party. Of those running again, 12 face primary challengers. By our count, 8 of the Blue 22 running for reelection are currently ahead and 4 are running behind their challengers, according to the Ohio Secretary of State. Stephens is running unopposed, but that could spell doom for his speakership.

—Monica Potts, 538

The earlier result I mentioned that appeared to show Nikki Haley had won heavily Amish Holmes County, Ohio, looks to have been a reporting error. The error has been corrected, and updated results from the Associated Press show Trump leading the county 82-11 percent with over 95 percent of the vote reporting.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

Merrin, the last-minute addition to the race, is projected to win the primary in Ohio's 9th District, according to ABC News. He will face incumbent Kaptor. Despite her incumbency, the seat could be tough for the long-serving Democrat to hold onto. As Nathaniel wrote earlier, Republicans in the state redrew the district to make it more Republican. But finding the right candidate has been tough for them: They'll be holding out hope that Merrin, who's been involved in his own intraparty battles in the state, will win this November.

—Monica Potts, 538

In Illinois’s 31st state House District, a battle has been brewing between longtime state representative Mary Flowers and state House Speaker Chris Welch. Flowers was the deputy Democratic leader of the chamber from 2020-2023, but was stripped of her leadership position in May 2023 after allegations of abusive conduct toward other members and staff. This year, Speaker Welch led an effort to oust her from the chamber, directing hundreds of thousands of dollars toward her challenger, Michael Crawford, and encouraging outside groups, particularly unions, to support Crawford.

The effort appears to have paid off: Crawford, an educator and political newcomer, is projected to win, according to the Associated Press. He leads the 19-term congresswoman 70-30 with 64 percent of the vote reporting.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

Former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden have both clinched their respective nominations in the presidential race, but primary season is just getting started. The biggest state to watch tonight is in Ohio, where a closely contested GOP primary will decide which Republican faces off against Sen. Sherrod Brown in one of this fall’s biggest Senate races. Trump-endorsed businessman Bernie Moreno seems to have an edge in that contest over state Sen. Matt Dolan and Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose. Trump-aligned Republicans will be pulling for Moreno today — but so might Democrats, who see Moreno as an easier target to defeat in November.

Which wing of the GOP comes out ahead seems to be the theme of the day throughout the Buckeye State, where we’re also tracking a slew of competitive Republican primaries for U.S. House. Meanwhile, two incumbents in Illinois — Democratic Rep. Danny Davis and Republican Rep. Mike Bost — are looking to stave off tough primary challenges, while California will host a Super Tuesday rematch in a special election to decide who will fill former Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s seat in the House for the remainder of this year.

As for timing, we should start to see results come in shortly after polls close at 7:30 p.m. Eastern in Ohio and 8 p.m. Eastern in Illinois. As always, 538 analysts will be here bringing you the latest results and analysis throughout the evening. Thanks for joining us!

—Tia Yang, 538