Illinois and Ohio primaries 2024: Trump-backed Senate candidate prevails in Ohio primary
538 tracked key House and Senate races, including a California special election.
November’s presidential matchup may be set, but Democrats and Republicans still need to decide who will run in hundreds of downballot races (e.g., for Senate and House) this fall. A batch of these contests were decided on Tuesday, March 19.
Tuesday was primary day in Ohio and Illinois, and in the biggest contest of the day, Republicans chose former President Donald Trump's endorsee Bernie Moreno as their candidate in Ohio’s U.S. Senate race. It was a good night for other Trump endorsees too, as Derek Merrin prevailed in the GOP primary for Ohio's 9th Congressional District, while incumbent Mike Bost is leading his challenger in Illinois's 12th District, as of early Wednesday morning. Plus, a special election in California could have immediate implications for House Republicans’ razor-thin majority.
538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
Welcome!
Former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden have both clinched their respective nominations in the presidential race, but primary season is just getting started. The biggest state to watch tonight is in Ohio, where a closely contested GOP primary will decide which Republican faces off against Sen. Sherrod Brown in one of this fall’s biggest Senate races. Trump-endorsed businessman Bernie Moreno seems to have an edge in that contest over state Sen. Matt Dolan and Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose. Trump-aligned Republicans will be pulling for Moreno today — but so might Democrats, who see Moreno as an easier target to defeat in November.
Which wing of the GOP comes out ahead seems to be the theme of the day throughout the Buckeye State, where we’re also tracking a slew of competitive Republican primaries for U.S. House. Meanwhile, two incumbents in Illinois — Democratic Rep. Danny Davis and Republican Rep. Mike Bost — are looking to stave off tough primary challenges, while California will host a Super Tuesday rematch in a special election to decide who will fill former Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s seat in the House for the remainder of this year.
As for timing, we should start to see results come in shortly after polls close at 7:30 p.m. Eastern in Ohio and 8 p.m. Eastern in Illinois. As always, 538 analysts will be here bringing you the latest results and analysis throughout the evening. Thanks for joining us!
—Tia Yang, 538
Why Mike Johnson is rooting for Fong
As Geoffrey mentioned, Fong is the front-runner in today's California 20th special election, and there's a chance he wins the seat outright today if he gets a majority of the vote. Other than Fong, perhaps no one is rooting for this outcome more than House Speaker Mike Johnson, whose Republican majority is currently paper-thin — and getting thinner.
Right now, the House has 219 Republicans and 213 Democrats, meaning Johnson can afford two Republican defections to pass legislation with a bare majority (three Republican defections would yield a 216-216 tie, which isn't enough to pass a bill). However, GOP Rep. Ken Buck recently announced that he would resign on March 22, which will bring the GOP majority down to 218-213.
If Fong wins outright today, he would presumably be sworn in around the same time that Buck leaves, keeping the Republican majority at 219-213. But if he doesn't, the soonest Fong (or another resident of the California 20th) could take office would be late May following a runoff. And in fact, an April 30 special election in New York's 26th District is very likely to send a Democrat to Congress, which would narrow the GOP majority to 218-214 if the California seat is still vacant. That would mean that, for a time, Johnson could only afford one Republican defection before his bills would fail! If you thought it was hard for House Republicans to govern before …
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538