Indiana primaries 2024: Spartz survives, big spenders prevail
538 tracked several establishment-versus-insurgent GOP primaries.
Tuesday saw the resolution of several major Republican primaries in Indiana: Voters selected the men who will likely become the state’s next U.S. senator and governor, and three open U.S. House seats were the canvas for fierce primary battles between the establishment and populist wings of the GOP. A maverick Republican incumbent also successfully defended her seat after waffling over her decision to seek reelection.
538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
- ABC News reports Jefferson Shreve is projected to win the nomination in the 6th District
- The AP made a call in Indiana’s 3rd
- Spartz projected to win renomination in 5th District, ABC News reports
- ABC News is now reporting that Mark Messmer is projected to win the 8th District GOP primary
- ABC News is now reporting that Braun is projected to win the GOP gubernatorial primary
Question: Here’s a fun one
Here's a good question from our fellow election nerds over at Daily Kos Elections. What say you guys?
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
The fall matchup is set in Indiana’s 1st District
ABC News reports that Randy Niemeyer is projected to win the GOP primary in Indiana's 1st District. This primary wasn't competitive — the party establishment coalesced around Niemeyer — but the result is notable because the 1st District is Indiana's only congressional seat that's competitive in the general election. Niemeyer will now attempt to unseat Democratic Rep. Frank Mrvan in November in this seat that voted for Biden by just 8 percentage points in 2020.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
ABC News reports Jefferson Shreve is projected to win the nomination in the 6th District
ABC News is reporting that wealthy businessman Jefferson Shreve is projected to win the GOP nomination in Indiana's 6th District, east of Indianapolis, with 81 percent of the expected vote reporting. Shreve, who poured millions of his own wealth into the race and who recently lost a bid for mayor of Indianapolis, is a shoo-in in the general election to replace Rep. Greg Pence. With 28 percent of the vote, he's outpacing fellow Republicans Mike Speedy and Jamison Carrier.
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections
Checking in on how Republican women are doing
We're tracking how female Democrats and Republicans are doing in Indiana's gubernatorial, Senate and House primaries. As I mentioned earlier, two out of the state's nine sitting House members are women, but the state has never had a female senator or governor.
Among Democrats, women are largely running in places where winning in November is a longshot; in many cases (like the gubernatorial race, and in the 2nd and 6th District), they were unopposed.
Among Republicans, Rep. Houchin has won reelection in the 9th District, and Rep. Spartz has won reelection too, in the 5th District, despite a well-funded challenge. In the 3rd District, Former Allen Circuit Court Judge Wendy Davis is trailing, but that race is still too close to call. And as we already reported, the sitting lieutenant governor, Suzanne Crouch, wasn't able to leverage that role into winning her party's nomination for governor.
—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor