Indiana primaries 2024: Spartz survives, big spenders prevail

538 tracked several establishment-versus-insurgent GOP primaries.

Tuesday saw the resolution of several major Republican primaries in Indiana: Voters selected the men who will likely become the state’s next U.S. senator and governor, and three open U.S. House seats were the canvas for fierce primary battles between the establishment and populist wings of the GOP. A maverick Republican incumbent also successfully defended her seat after waffling over her decision to seek reelection.

538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


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ABC News is now reporting that Braun is projected to win the GOP gubernatorial primary

ABC News reports that Sen. Mike Braun is projected to win the Republican primary in the Indiana governor's race, making him the favorite to win in the general election this fall.

—Monica Potts, 538


A lone Senate projection

ABC News reports that Valerie McCray is projected to win the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate. With 21 percent of the expected vote reporting, McCray has 67 percent of the vote over Marc Carmichael's 33 percent. McCray will face long odds against Rep. Jim Banks, the Republicans' one and only candidate on their primary ballot today, in November.

—Irena Li, 538


Is the GOP lagging on nominating women?

Over on Bluesky, Boston magazine contributing editor David Bernstein shared that the GOP has nominated men in all 10 open-seat solid-Republican districts going into tonight. A similar outcome for Democrats would be shocking, given that a vast majority of Democrats say that there are too few women in politics. But the GOP doesn’t share the same sentiment.

In 2020, we watched where Republicans were nominating women and found that, through August 2020, only 6 out of the 77 Republican women who had won their primaries did so in a safe Republican seat. A whopping 49 of those women won in safe Democratic seats.

In other words, the GOP women won primaries in places where they wouldn’t win in November. We’ll have more to say about that this year, after a few more primaries have passed.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor


Indiana governor will likely come down to two party-switchers

While it’s well known that McCormick used to be a Republican before switching parties in 2021, it’s perhaps less well known that Braun also used to be registered with the opposite party.

Braun was registered as a Democrat until the 2012 cycle, perhaps a surprise for a politician ranked among the most conservative in the Senate based on DW-NOMINATE. In 2018, when he ran for Senate, he told CNN that he was only registered as a Democrat in order to vote in local primary elections and that he has always identified as a Republican regardless of his registration status.

In any case, at least according to the official records, the governor’s race in Indiana looks like it will be between two party-switchers, perhaps emblematic of the upheaval in partisan alignment we’ve seen across the nation in the last decade.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538


A classic establishment-insurgent battle in Indiana’s 6th

In the safely Republican 6th District, Rep. Greg Pence — who, like his brother Mike, is conservative but not angry about it — is stepping aside, and it's very much an open question whether he'll be replaced by a moderate or a hardliner.

Former Indianapolis City-County Councilor Jefferson Shreve, the owner of a successful storage company, is the top fundraiser in the GOP primary thanks to a $4.5 million loan to his own campaign — more than his six opponents have raised combined. But wealthy state Rep. Mike Speedy has also loaned himself $1.3 million and he's using it to remind voters of the moderate positions, like supporting gun control, that Shreve took last year during his failed bid for mayor of Indianapolis (a significantly bluer constituency than the 6th District). To underscore the ideological fault lines of the primary: Shreve has the endorsement of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, while Speedy is backed by the tea party group Americans for Prosperity and Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America.

No other active candidate in the race has raised more than $200,000 except businessman Jamison Carrier, who raised the most from actual donors ($115,000) in addition to a $750,000 self-loan. There's a chance that Carrier sneaks up the middle between the two front-runners, as he's the only one of the three from a part of the district that's not Indianapolis, which accounted for just 23 percent of the Trump vote in the district in 2020, according to Daily Kos Elections. There's no polling here, though, so it's hard to know whether Carrier's geographic advantage will erase Shreve's and Speedy's financial edge.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538