Indiana primaries 2024: Spartz survives, big spenders prevail

538 tracked several establishment-versus-insurgent GOP primaries.

Tuesday saw the resolution of several major Republican primaries in Indiana: Voters selected the men who will likely become the state’s next U.S. senator and governor, and three open U.S. House seats were the canvas for fierce primary battles between the establishment and populist wings of the GOP. A maverick Republican incumbent also successfully defended her seat after waffling over her decision to seek reelection.

538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


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Checking in on anti-abortion candidates

As I mentioned earlier, the Republican races throughout the state are crowded with anti-abortion candidates. Checking in with the early results, it looks like ABC is reporting that one incumbent on the list, Baird in the 4th District, is projected to win. ABC News is also reporting that Houchin, who currently represents the 9th District, is projected to win in her primary and will go on to seek reelection in November.

—Monica Potts, 538


Messmer leads former Rep. Hostettler in race that attracted lots of outside money

We’ve got a few votes counted in the 8th District as well (8 percent of the expected vote, to be precise), which sits in the southwestern corner of the state. This seat attracted a fair bit of outside spending, both in support of Mark Messmer, the state senator currently leading the bunch, and against former Rep. John Hostettler, who represented a predecessor district in the 1990s and 2000s. The race was notable in that it represented the first time AIPAC’s affiliated super PAC, United Democracy Project, got involved in a Republican primary. Previously, it had only spent in Democratic primaries.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections


First results in the 3rd District

With 12 percent of the expected vote reporting in the Republican primary for the 3rd District, Zay is at 29 percent, Stutzman is at 21 percent, Davis is at 18 percent and Smith is at 17 percent. However, Zay’s lead is likely due to the fact that Huntington County, where a lot of the reported votes are coming from, is in his state Senate district. The Associated Press has results from more counties, including populous Allen County, and currently has a different result: Stutzman 23 percent, Davis 22 percent, Smith 21 percent and Zay 19 percent.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


Republicans likely won’t nominate a woman for Governor

Right now there are more women serving as governors than at any other time — but it's just 12. Of those 12, only four are Republican — Noem of South Dakota, Huckabee Sanders of Arkansas, Ivey of Alabama and Reynolds of Iowa.

Looks like Republicans probably won’t be adding another in Crouch. Crouch was in a good position, too, as the current lieutenant governor of the state. One reason women struggle to win elections at that level is their lack of access to the pipeline. But that pipeline obviously isn't a guarantee.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor


A classic establishment-insurgent battle in Indiana’s 6th

In the safely Republican 6th District, Rep. Greg Pence — who, like his brother Mike, is conservative but not angry about it — is stepping aside, and it's very much an open question whether he'll be replaced by a moderate or a hardliner.

Former Indianapolis City-County Councilor Jefferson Shreve, the owner of a successful storage company, is the top fundraiser in the GOP primary thanks to a $4.5 million loan to his own campaign — more than his six opponents have raised combined. But wealthy state Rep. Mike Speedy has also loaned himself $1.3 million and he's using it to remind voters of the moderate positions, like supporting gun control, that Shreve took last year during his failed bid for mayor of Indianapolis (a significantly bluer constituency than the 6th District). To underscore the ideological fault lines of the primary: Shreve has the endorsement of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, while Speedy is backed by the tea party group Americans for Prosperity and Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America.

No other active candidate in the race has raised more than $200,000 except businessman Jamison Carrier, who raised the most from actual donors ($115,000) in addition to a $750,000 self-loan. There's a chance that Carrier sneaks up the middle between the two front-runners, as he's the only one of the three from a part of the district that's not Indianapolis, which accounted for just 23 percent of the Trump vote in the district in 2020, according to Daily Kos Elections. There's no polling here, though, so it's hard to know whether Carrier's geographic advantage will erase Shreve's and Speedy's financial edge.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538