I’ve never visited Virginia, but I know about the 2nd District! I agree with Jacob here.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

There's just one more primary that we're still watching tonight, but it's a barnburner. We're up to 92 percent of the expected vote counted in the Republican primary for Indiana's 3rd District, and Stutzman is up to 24 percent of the vote, with Smith at 22 percent, Davis at 19 percent and Zay at 17 percent. Smith now trails Stutzman by 1,236 votes.

According to the AP, there are still several thousand votes left to be counted in Allen County, where Smith is currently leading. But can he net 1,236 votes there? I don't know …

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Since 2016, New Mexico's 2nd District has changed hands in every election. Republican Steve Pearce held the district in 2003-2009 and 2011-2019, leaving in the 2008 and 2018 cycles to mount (unsuccessful) bids for Senate and governor, respectively. When he left in 2008, Democrat Harry Teague won the seat, only to lose to Pearce when he returned.

According to Daily Kos Elections, Biden won the current configuration of the seat by 6 points in 2020, but in 2022 Democrat Gabe Vasquez beat incumbent Republican Yvette Herrell by less than 1 point. The seat is about 60 percent Hispanic, and as we've seen change in the Hispanic vote in the last few years, I expect it to remain competitive in the coming cycles.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

My vote might be for Virginia's 2nd District, which is anchored by Virginia Beach. It's been held by seven different members over the past 20 years: five Republicans and two Democrats. Four of those members lost their reelection bids, and the current officeholder, Rep. Jen Kiggans, faces a challenging reelection this fall.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

In the safely Republican 6th District, Rep. Greg Pence — who, like his brother Mike, is conservative but not angry about it — is stepping aside, and it's very much an open question whether he'll be replaced by a moderate or a hardliner.

Former Indianapolis City-County Councilor Jefferson Shreve, the owner of a successful storage company, is the top fundraiser in the GOP primary thanks to a $4.5 million loan to his own campaign — more than his six opponents have raised combined. But wealthy state Rep. Mike Speedy has also loaned himself $1.3 million and he's using it to remind voters of the moderate positions, like supporting gun control, that Shreve took last year during his failed bid for mayor of Indianapolis (a significantly bluer constituency than the 6th District). To underscore the ideological fault lines of the primary: Shreve has the endorsement of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, while Speedy is backed by the tea party group Americans for Prosperity and Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America.

No other active candidate in the race has raised more than $200,000 except businessman Jamison Carrier, who raised the most from actual donors ($115,000) in addition to a $750,000 self-loan. There's a chance that Carrier sneaks up the middle between the two front-runners, as he's the only one of the three from a part of the district that's not Indianapolis, which accounted for just 23 percent of the Trump vote in the district in 2020, according to Daily Kos Elections. There's no polling here, though, so it's hard to know whether Carrier's geographic advantage will erase Shreve's and Speedy's financial edge.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538