Indiana primaries 2024: Spartz survives, big spenders prevail
538 tracked several establishment-versus-insurgent GOP primaries.
Tuesday saw the resolution of several major Republican primaries in Indiana: Voters selected the men who will likely become the state’s next U.S. senator and governor, and three open U.S. House seats were the canvas for fierce primary battles between the establishment and populist wings of the GOP. A maverick Republican incumbent also successfully defended her seat after waffling over her decision to seek reelection.
538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
- ABC News reports Jefferson Shreve is projected to win the nomination in the 6th District
- The AP made a call in Indiana’s 3rd
- Spartz projected to win renomination in 5th District, ABC News reports
- ABC News is now reporting that Mark Messmer is projected to win the 8th District GOP primary
- ABC News is now reporting that Braun is projected to win the GOP gubernatorial primary
Stutzman gains in Indiana’s 3rd
There's just one more primary that we're still watching tonight, but it's a barnburner. We're up to 92 percent of the expected vote counted in the Republican primary for Indiana's 3rd District, and Stutzman is up to 24 percent of the vote, with Smith at 22 percent, Davis at 19 percent and Zay at 17 percent. Smith now trails Stutzman by 1,236 votes.
According to the AP, there are still several thousand votes left to be counted in Allen County, where Smith is currently leading. But can he net 1,236 votes there? I don't know …
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
Answer: New Mexico’s 2nd District seems a good candidate
Since 2016, New Mexico's 2nd District has changed hands in every election. Republican Steve Pearce held the district in 2003-2009 and 2011-2019, leaving in the 2008 and 2018 cycles to mount (unsuccessful) bids for Senate and governor, respectively. When he left in 2008, Democrat Harry Teague won the seat, only to lose to Pearce when he returned.
According to Daily Kos Elections, Biden won the current configuration of the seat by 6 points in 2020, but in 2022 Democrat Gabe Vasquez beat incumbent Republican Yvette Herrell by less than 1 point. The seat is about 60 percent Hispanic, and as we've seen change in the Hispanic vote in the last few years, I expect it to remain competitive in the coming cycles.
—Mary Radcliffe, 538
Answer: The Bloody 2nd?
My vote might be for Virginia's 2nd District, which is anchored by Virginia Beach. It's been held by seven different members over the past 20 years: five Republicans and two Democrats. Four of those members lost their reelection bids, and the current officeholder, Rep. Jen Kiggans, faces a challenging reelection this fall.
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections
Question: Here’s a fun one
Here's a good question from our fellow election nerds over at Daily Kos Elections. What say you guys?
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
ABC News is now reporting that Mark Messmer is projected to win the 8th District GOP primary
ABC News reports that state Sen. Mark Messmer is projected to win the crowded GOP primary in Indiana's 8th District, which is currently held by Rep. Larry Buschon. Messmer defeated former Rep. John Hostettler and several other candidates in a race that attracted significant outside spending.
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections