Indiana primaries 2024: Spartz survives, big spenders prevail

538 tracked several establishment-versus-insurgent GOP primaries.

Tuesday saw the resolution of several major Republican primaries in Indiana: Voters selected the men who will likely become the state’s next U.S. senator and governor, and three open U.S. House seats were the canvas for fierce primary battles between the establishment and populist wings of the GOP. A maverick Republican incumbent also successfully defended her seat after waffling over her decision to seek reelection.

538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


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Early returns in the 6th District

We’ve gotten a trickle of votes counted in the 6th District, which includes suburbs and rural areas east of Indianapolis. With 15 percent of the expected vote reporting, Jefferson Shreve, who has dipped into his considerable pockets to self fund a bid to the tune of $4.5 million is ahead with 30 percent, while car dealership consultant Jamison Carrier is in second with 24 percent.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections


Indiana voters' concerns are similar to what we see nationwide

That's interesting, Mary, and in line with what we see nationwide. Voters are particularly down on the economy under President Biden. When PerryUndem, in partnership with 538, conducted a focus group with voters about the economy, most named cost-of-living issues as their specific economic concern. Some were also worried about the job market, layoffs and the price of housing. In general, Trump-leaners gave Biden worse marks on the economy, but Biden-leaners weren't thrilled about it either. They were less specific when it came to what they wanted a president to do about it, however.

And Democratic and independent voters are very concerned about the state of democracy and worry about a repeat of Jan. 6. Trump's trials and statements on the campaign trail haven't eased their concerns. Republicans worry about the state of democracy as well, but they seem to be influenced more by Trump's repeated falsehoods that the 2020 election was stolen and by conspiracy claims about noncitizens voting.

—Monica Potts, 538


Spartz has early edge in 5th District GOP primary

Checking in on Rep. Victoria Spartz, the most endangered incumbent we've got our eye on, and she's out to an early lead in the 5th District Republican primary — but one that's far from insurmountable. With 23 percent of the expected vote reporting, Spartz leads Chuck Goodrich 40 percent to 32 percent. There's quite a ways to go, but Spartz does lead in the three counties that have reported any votes, including Hamilton, the sizable Indianapolis suburban-exurban county that will likely make up close to half the primary vote in this district.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538


GOP primary voters in Indiana are focused on the economy

While we're waiting for more results, let's check in on the issues Indiana voters are focused on in this election. According to a March Emerson College/The Hill poll, 44 percent of voters who said they planned to vote in the Republican primary named "the economy (jobs, inflation, taxes)" as the most important issue facing the state, far higher than the second most chosen option of immigration, which was selected by 17 percent of GOP primary voters, and crime, selected by 12 percent. No other issue was chosen by more than 7 percent of GOP primary voters.

Democratic primary voters, on the other hand, see things very differently: Just 18 percent chose the economy, while 25 percent selected "threats to democracy." Another 16 percent chose "abortion access" and 10 percent chose education.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538


Braun is very conservative on abortion

Braun's record in the Senate on abortion has earned him an A+ rating from the anti-abortion Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America. He's introduced several anti-abortion bills, including a parental notification bill last year that would require parents to be notified when their minor child seeks an abortion and give them a chance to stop it. Before the ruling that overturned Roe v. Wade, Braun had suggested that interracial marriage and same-sex marriage, both issues also related to rights to privacy, should be left to the states, before walking that back and saying he'd misunderstood the reporter's question. Still, he has praised Indiana's near-total abortion ban, but he's also said more recently that he expects tweaks in the coming years.

Of course, Braun was only one of many anti-abortion candidates I'm watching tonight. Messmer's projected win in the 8th District (according to reporting by ABC News) adds another anti-abortion victory to the list, and ABC News is now reporting that Baird is projected to win in the 4th District.

—Monica Potts, 538