I’ve never visited Virginia, but I know about the 2nd District! I agree with Jacob here.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

There's just one more primary that we're still watching tonight, but it's a barnburner. We're up to 92 percent of the expected vote counted in the Republican primary for Indiana's 3rd District, and Stutzman is up to 24 percent of the vote, with Smith at 22 percent, Davis at 19 percent and Zay at 17 percent. Smith now trails Stutzman by 1,236 votes.

According to the AP, there are still several thousand votes left to be counted in Allen County, where Smith is currently leading. But can he net 1,236 votes there? I don't know …

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Since 2016, New Mexico's 2nd District has changed hands in every election. Republican Steve Pearce held the district in 2003-2009 and 2011-2019, leaving in the 2008 and 2018 cycles to mount (unsuccessful) bids for Senate and governor, respectively. When he left in 2008, Democrat Harry Teague won the seat, only to lose to Pearce when he returned.

According to Daily Kos Elections, Biden won the current configuration of the seat by 6 points in 2020, but in 2022 Democrat Gabe Vasquez beat incumbent Republican Yvette Herrell by less than 1 point. The seat is about 60 percent Hispanic, and as we've seen change in the Hispanic vote in the last few years, I expect it to remain competitive in the coming cycles.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

My vote might be for Virginia's 2nd District, which is anchored by Virginia Beach. It's been held by seven different members over the past 20 years: five Republicans and two Democrats. Four of those members lost their reelection bids, and the current officeholder, Rep. Jen Kiggans, faces a challenging reelection this fall.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

Braun's record in the Senate on abortion has earned him an A+ rating from the anti-abortion Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America. He's introduced several anti-abortion bills, including a parental notification bill last year that would require parents to be notified when their minor child seeks an abortion and give them a chance to stop it. Before the ruling that overturned Roe v. Wade, Braun had suggested that interracial marriage and same-sex marriage, both issues also related to rights to privacy, should be left to the states, before walking that back and saying he'd misunderstood the reporter's question. Still, he has praised Indiana's near-total abortion ban, but he's also said more recently that he expects tweaks in the coming years.

Of course, Braun was only one of many anti-abortion candidates I'm watching tonight. Messmer's projected win in the 8th District (according to reporting by ABC News) adds another anti-abortion victory to the list, and ABC News is now reporting that Baird is projected to win in the 4th District.

—Monica Potts, 538