We're tracking how 11 candidates of color are performing in Indiana's gubernatorial, Senate and House primaries, and it appears that two are on their way to winning party nominations tonight. Democratic Rep. André Carson, of the Indianapolis-based 7th District, has 91 percent of the vote and is projected to win, according to reporting by ABC News. In the Democratic primary for Senate, clinical psychologist Valerie McCray is also projected to win, ABC News reports. She currently has 68 percent of the vote with 47 percent of the expected vote reporting — perhaps a bit of a surprise considering former state Rep. Marc Carmichael outraised her in that contest.

Beyond those two, however, it's looking unlikely any other candidates of color will find victory this evening. In the Democratic primary in the solidly red 4th District, insurance executive Rimpi Girn trails Derrick Holder, 63 percent to 37 percent, and ABC News reports that Holder is projected to win. In the 1st District, Mark Leyva and Ben Ruiz are behind Lake County Councilmember Randy Niemeyer by a significant margin in the GOP primary, with the winner set to take on Democratic Rep. Frank Mrvan. And in the solidly blue 7th District, Gabe Whitley is in last place among the Republican contenders fighting for the right to likely lose to Carson.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

With 81 percent of the expected vote reporting in the GOP primary for Indiana’s 3rd District, things are extremely close and unpredictable. Stutzman has 23 percent of the vote, Smith has 22 percent, Davis has 19 percent and Zay has 18 percent. In terms of raw votes, Stutzman is just 398 votes ahead of Smith.

Stutzman’s lead is built on his strong showing in the northern part of the district, and the good news for him is that, according to the AP, two counties in that region are barely reporting any votes. But the largest number of outstanding votes is probably in Fort Wayne’s Allen County, where Smith is narrowly leading Stutzman. Very suspenseful!

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Braun's record in the Senate on abortion has earned him an A+ rating from the anti-abortion Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America. He's introduced several anti-abortion bills, including a parental notification bill last year that would require parents to be notified when their minor child seeks an abortion and give them a chance to stop it. Before the ruling that overturned Roe v. Wade, Braun had suggested that interracial marriage and same-sex marriage, both issues also related to rights to privacy, should be left to the states, before walking that back and saying he'd misunderstood the reporter's question. Still, he has praised Indiana's near-total abortion ban, but he's also said more recently that he expects tweaks in the coming years.

Of course, Braun was only one of many anti-abortion candidates I'm watching tonight. Messmer's projected win in the 8th District (according to reporting by ABC News) adds another anti-abortion victory to the list, and ABC News is now reporting that Baird is projected to win in the 4th District.

—Monica Potts, 538

As Geoffrey just mentioned, with 68 percent of the expected vote reporting, Spartz currently leads the crowded field with 38 percent of the vote, with state Rep. Goodrich, running close behind (32 percent). Political science research suggests female incumbents face more qualified challengers than male incumbents because a history of women's underrepresentation gives the impression that female incumbents are more vulnerable and easier to beat.

But Spartz's situation is unique, as we mentioned earlier on the blog. After two terms, she announced she wouldn't run for reelection in February. And given that House members seem to really hate their jobs, there was no reason to think she was bluffing!

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

Tonight, we'll be monitoring how candidates of color perform in primaries for governor, U.S. Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives. Overall, 11 people of color are running in these contests — six Republicans and five Democrats.

The most likely primary winner is Democratic Rep. André Carson, who is Indiana's lone Black representative on Capitol Hill (and was also only the second Muslim ever elected to Congress). Democrats in the solidly blue 7th District look set to renominate him against two little-known Black Democrats.

In the dark-red 4th District, insurance executive Rimpi Girn is an Indian immigrant who has raised at least a little money, so she may be the favorite for the Democratic nomination — but a November defeat against GOP Rep. Jim Baird is a near-certainty.

In the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, clinical psychologist Valerie McCray is running a long-shot race to become the state's first Black U.S. senator. She ran for the state's 2022 Senate contest but failed to make the ballot and briefly ran for president in 2020. However, she's raised only $14,800, less than the $112,000 former state Rep. Marc Carmichael has brought in. Still, either Democrat will be a huge underdog against Rep. Jim Banks in the general election.

It's less clear if any candidate of color has a shot at winning a GOP primary. On paper, the contender with the best chance might be "Honest Gabe" Whitley, who has raised $364,000 in the solidly Democratic 7th District, making him the only Republican in that race to have reported raising anything. But Whitley is a lightning rod of controversy: Among other things, he faces accusations of concocting false donors and a fictional veterans organization to back his candidacy.

In the 5th District, speech-language pathologist and business owner Raju Chinthala is running, but he's unlikely to finish ahead of the incumbent Spartz or her leading challenger, Goodrich. Two Republican Latino candidates are running in the 1st District — Mark Levya and Ben Ruiz — but Lake County Councilmember Randy Niemeyer is the party's preferred candidate to take on Democratic Rep. Frank Mrvan.

Lastly, the best-known Republican on this list is Curtis Hill, who is making a long-shot bid for governor. Hill lost renomination for state attorney general in 2020 after allegations came out that he had groped a group of women at a party.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538