Indiana primaries 2024: Spartz survives, big spenders prevail

538 tracked several establishment-versus-insurgent GOP primaries.

Tuesday saw the resolution of several major Republican primaries in Indiana: Voters selected the men who will likely become the state’s next U.S. senator and governor, and three open U.S. House seats were the canvas for fierce primary battles between the establishment and populist wings of the GOP. A maverick Republican incumbent also successfully defended her seat after waffling over her decision to seek reelection.

538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


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Checking in on anti-abortion candidates

As I mentioned earlier, the Republican races throughout the state are crowded with anti-abortion candidates. Checking in with the early results, it looks like ABC is reporting that one incumbent on the list, Baird in the 4th District, is projected to win. ABC News is also reporting that Houchin, who currently represents the 9th District, is projected to win in her primary and will go on to seek reelection in November.

—Monica Potts, 538


Messmer leads former Rep. Hostettler in race that attracted lots of outside money

We’ve got a few votes counted in the 8th District as well (8 percent of the expected vote, to be precise), which sits in the southwestern corner of the state. This seat attracted a fair bit of outside spending, both in support of Mark Messmer, the state senator currently leading the bunch, and against former Rep. John Hostettler, who represented a predecessor district in the 1990s and 2000s. The race was notable in that it represented the first time AIPAC’s affiliated super PAC, United Democracy Project, got involved in a Republican primary. Previously, it had only spent in Democratic primaries.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections


First results in the 3rd District

With 12 percent of the expected vote reporting in the Republican primary for the 3rd District, Zay is at 29 percent, Stutzman is at 21 percent, Davis is at 18 percent and Smith is at 17 percent. However, Zay’s lead is likely due to the fact that Huntington County, where a lot of the reported votes are coming from, is in his state Senate district. The Associated Press has results from more counties, including populous Allen County, and currently has a different result: Stutzman 23 percent, Davis 22 percent, Smith 21 percent and Zay 19 percent.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


Republicans likely won’t nominate a woman for Governor

Right now there are more women serving as governors than at any other time — but it's just 12. Of those 12, only four are Republican — Noem of South Dakota, Huckabee Sanders of Arkansas, Ivey of Alabama and Reynolds of Iowa.

Looks like Republicans probably won’t be adding another in Crouch. Crouch was in a good position, too, as the current lieutenant governor of the state. One reason women struggle to win elections at that level is their lack of access to the pipeline. But that pipeline obviously isn't a guarantee.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor


Candidates of color to watch in Indiana

Tonight, we'll be monitoring how candidates of color perform in primaries for governor, U.S. Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives. Overall, 11 people of color are running in these contests — six Republicans and five Democrats.

The most likely primary winner is Democratic Rep. André Carson, who is Indiana's lone Black representative on Capitol Hill (and was also only the second Muslim ever elected to Congress). Democrats in the solidly blue 7th District look set to renominate him against two little-known Black Democrats.

In the dark-red 4th District, insurance executive Rimpi Girn is an Indian immigrant who has raised at least a little money, so she may be the favorite for the Democratic nomination — but a November defeat against GOP Rep. Jim Baird is a near-certainty.

In the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, clinical psychologist Valerie McCray is running a long-shot race to become the state's first Black U.S. senator. She ran for the state's 2022 Senate contest but failed to make the ballot and briefly ran for president in 2020. However, she's raised only $14,800, less than the $112,000 former state Rep. Marc Carmichael has brought in. Still, either Democrat will be a huge underdog against Rep. Jim Banks in the general election.

It's less clear if any candidate of color has a shot at winning a GOP primary. On paper, the contender with the best chance might be "Honest Gabe" Whitley, who has raised $364,000 in the solidly Democratic 7th District, making him the only Republican in that race to have reported raising anything. But Whitley is a lightning rod of controversy: Among other things, he faces accusations of concocting false donors and a fictional veterans organization to back his candidacy.

In the 5th District, speech-language pathologist and business owner Raju Chinthala is running, but he's unlikely to finish ahead of the incumbent Spartz or her leading challenger, Goodrich. Two Republican Latino candidates are running in the 1st District — Mark Levya and Ben Ruiz — but Lake County Councilmember Randy Niemeyer is the party's preferred candidate to take on Democratic Rep. Frank Mrvan.

Lastly, the best-known Republican on this list is Curtis Hill, who is making a long-shot bid for governor. Hill lost renomination for state attorney general in 2020 after allegations came out that he had groped a group of women at a party.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538