Indiana primaries 2024: Spartz survives, big spenders prevail

538 tracked several establishment-versus-insurgent GOP primaries.

Tuesday saw the resolution of several major Republican primaries in Indiana: Voters selected the men who will likely become the state’s next U.S. senator and governor, and three open U.S. House seats were the canvas for fierce primary battles between the establishment and populist wings of the GOP. A maverick Republican incumbent also successfully defended her seat after waffling over her decision to seek reelection.

538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


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Banks largely unknown to Indiana Republicans

You're right, Irena. Banks is favored to win in November due to the state's partisan lean, but interestingly, many Hoosiers don't yet know anything about him. Because the Senate primary was uncontested, Banks hasn't had a chance yet to define himself to voters. According to an April poll from SurveyUSA/Howey Politics Indiana/State Affairs, 55 percent of Republican primary voters in the Hoosier state were not familiar with him. Of the remaining 45 percent, 34 percent said they had a favorable opinion of Banks, and 10 percent said they had an unfavorable opinion.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538


ABC News is now reporting that Braun is projected to win the GOP gubernatorial primary

ABC News reports that Sen. Mike Braun is projected to win the Republican primary in the Indiana governor's race, making him the favorite to win in the general election this fall.

—Monica Potts, 538


A lone Senate projection

ABC News reports that Valerie McCray is projected to win the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate. With 21 percent of the expected vote reporting, McCray has 67 percent of the vote over Marc Carmichael's 33 percent. McCray will face long odds against Rep. Jim Banks, the Republicans' one and only candidate on their primary ballot today, in November.

—Irena Li, 538


Is the GOP lagging on nominating women?

Over on Bluesky, Boston magazine contributing editor David Bernstein shared that the GOP has nominated men in all 10 open-seat solid-Republican districts going into tonight. A similar outcome for Democrats would be shocking, given that a vast majority of Democrats say that there are too few women in politics. But the GOP doesn’t share the same sentiment.

In 2020, we watched where Republicans were nominating women and found that, through August 2020, only 6 out of the 77 Republican women who had won their primaries did so in a safe Republican seat. A whopping 49 of those women won in safe Democratic seats.

In other words, the GOP women won primaries in places where they wouldn’t win in November. We’ll have more to say about that this year, after a few more primaries have passed.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor


Checking in on candidates of color running in Indiana

We're tracking how 11 candidates of color are performing in Indiana's gubernatorial, Senate and House primaries, and it appears that two are on their way to winning party nominations tonight. Democratic Rep. André Carson, of the Indianapolis-based 7th District, has 91 percent of the vote and is projected to win, according to reporting by ABC News. In the Democratic primary for Senate, clinical psychologist Valerie McCray is also projected to win, ABC News reports. She currently has 68 percent of the vote with 47 percent of the expected vote reporting — perhaps a bit of a surprise considering former state Rep. Marc Carmichael outraised her in that contest.

Beyond those two, however, it's looking unlikely any other candidates of color will find victory this evening. In the Democratic primary in the solidly red 4th District, insurance executive Rimpi Girn trails Derrick Holder, 63 percent to 37 percent, and ABC News reports that Holder is projected to win. In the 1st District, Mark Leyva and Ben Ruiz are behind Lake County Councilmember Randy Niemeyer by a significant margin in the GOP primary, with the winner set to take on Democratic Rep. Frank Mrvan. And in the solidly blue 7th District, Gabe Whitley is in last place among the Republican contenders fighting for the right to likely lose to Carson.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538