Indiana primaries 2024: Spartz survives, big spenders prevail

538 tracked several establishment-versus-insurgent GOP primaries.

Tuesday saw the resolution of several major Republican primaries in Indiana: Voters selected the men who will likely become the state’s next U.S. senator and governor, and three open U.S. House seats were the canvas for fierce primary battles between the establishment and populist wings of the GOP. A maverick Republican incumbent also successfully defended her seat after waffling over her decision to seek reelection.

538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


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Welcome!

Happy primary day, Hoosiers! Indiana is easily forgotten on the primary calendar, sandwiched as it is between sexier states like Pennsylvania and Maryland (don't look at me like that — have you seen that flag?). But if you care about how well Congress functions, you'll want to pay attention to today's primaries, even if you don't watch "Stranger Things" and "Parks and Rec" on repeat.

As my colleagues recently so beautifully illustrated, there are several parties within the parties in Congress. On the Republican side, there are pragmatists who fall in line with party leadership — and then there are obstructionists who tend to make life harder for them.

This year, there are three open House seats in Indiana that could send either type of representative to Congress. And because these seats are safely Republican, today's contests, not November's, will effectively determine that. Elsewhere in the state, Rep. Victoria Spartz — the Hamlet from Hamilton County — could be the second incumbent representative of the cycle to lose reelection, and GOP primary voters will also choose who will likely become the next chief executive of this state of nearly 7 million people. So yeah, the stakes are high!

We won't have to wait long to find out the winners: Polls close in most of Indiana (the parts in the Eastern time zone) at 6 p.m. Eastern, with the parts of the state in the Central time zone following suit at 7 p.m. Eastern. Follow along with us for the next few hours, won't you?

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


Checking in on candidates of color running in Indiana

We're tracking how 11 candidates of color are performing in Indiana's gubernatorial, Senate and House primaries, and it appears that two are on their way to winning party nominations tonight. Democratic Rep. André Carson, of the Indianapolis-based 7th District, has 91 percent of the vote and is projected to win, according to reporting by ABC News. In the Democratic primary for Senate, clinical psychologist Valerie McCray is also projected to win, ABC News reports. She currently has 68 percent of the vote with 47 percent of the expected vote reporting — perhaps a bit of a surprise considering former state Rep. Marc Carmichael outraised her in that contest.

Beyond those two, however, it's looking unlikely any other candidates of color will find victory this evening. In the Democratic primary in the solidly red 4th District, insurance executive Rimpi Girn trails Derrick Holder, 63 percent to 37 percent, and ABC News reports that Holder is projected to win. In the 1st District, Mark Leyva and Ben Ruiz are behind Lake County Councilmember Randy Niemeyer by a significant margin in the GOP primary, with the winner set to take on Democratic Rep. Frank Mrvan. And in the solidly blue 7th District, Gabe Whitley is in last place among the Republican contenders fighting for the right to likely lose to Carson.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538