Indiana primaries 2024: Spartz survives, big spenders prevail
538 tracked several establishment-versus-insurgent GOP primaries.
Tuesday saw the resolution of several major Republican primaries in Indiana: Voters selected the men who will likely become the state’s next U.S. senator and governor, and three open U.S. House seats were the canvas for fierce primary battles between the establishment and populist wings of the GOP. A maverick Republican incumbent also successfully defended her seat after waffling over her decision to seek reelection.
538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
- ABC News reports Jefferson Shreve is projected to win the nomination in the 6th District
- The AP made a call in Indiana’s 3rd
- Spartz projected to win renomination in 5th District, ABC News reports
- ABC News is now reporting that Mark Messmer is projected to win the 8th District GOP primary
- ABC News is now reporting that Braun is projected to win the GOP gubernatorial primary
Shreve is leading in Marion County too
Indianapolis’s Marion County is reporting votes now in Indiana’s 6th, too. And according to the AP, Shreve is beating Speedy there 38 percent to 29 percent, likely cutting off any chance for the more conservative Speedy to prevail.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
Messmer projected winner in GOP 8th District primary by the AP
The Associated Press has projected that state Sen. Mark Messmer has won the GOP nomination in the 8th District. He will likely win the general election this fall. ABC News is not reporting a projection in the race yet, but Messmer has about 43 percent of the vote — 27 percent more than his closest challenger — with 40 percent of the expected vote reporting.
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections
Shreve still in the driver’s seat
We’re up to about half of the expected vote counted in Indiana‘s 6th District, and Jefferson Shreve is still holding steady in the lead with 29 percent. Jamison Carrier and Mike Speedy are running behind at 21 and 20 percent, respectively.
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections
Banks largely unknown to Indiana Republicans
You're right, Irena. Banks is favored to win in November due to the state's partisan lean, but interestingly, many Hoosiers don't yet know anything about him. Because the Senate primary was uncontested, Banks hasn't had a chance yet to define himself to voters. According to an April poll from SurveyUSA/Howey Politics Indiana/State Affairs, 55 percent of Republican primary voters in the Hoosier state were not familiar with him. Of the remaining 45 percent, 34 percent said they had a favorable opinion of Banks, and 10 percent said they had an unfavorable opinion.
—Mary Radcliffe, 538
Final thought: GOP women hold on, but make little gains
So far in 2024, the GOP seems to be running behind where it was last cycle when it comes to nominating women in competitive or safe seats. Tonight, female incumbents Houchin and Spartz held on and will very likely win reelection in the fall. But a couple qualified female candidates didn’t fare as well tonight. The sitting lieutenant governor, Crouch, lost the gubernatorial primary, and in the 3rd District, it looks like Davis also failed to win. Both of these women could’ve benefited from more unified support. Although Crouch had endorsements from lower level officials, the Club for Growth and Trump endorsed Braun. And in the 3rd, the Club for Growth actively campaigned against Davis. Women, especially Republican women, face many invisible hurdles in their effort to win elected office. Add hurdles like these, and the challenge is insurmountable.
—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor