Indiana primaries 2024: Spartz survives, big spenders prevail
538 tracked several establishment-versus-insurgent GOP primaries.
Tuesday saw the resolution of several major Republican primaries in Indiana: Voters selected the men who will likely become the state’s next U.S. senator and governor, and three open U.S. House seats were the canvas for fierce primary battles between the establishment and populist wings of the GOP. A maverick Republican incumbent also successfully defended her seat after waffling over her decision to seek reelection.
538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
- ABC News reports Jefferson Shreve is projected to win the nomination in the 6th District
- The AP made a call in Indiana’s 3rd
- Spartz projected to win renomination in 5th District, ABC News reports
- ABC News is now reporting that Mark Messmer is projected to win the 8th District GOP primary
- ABC News is now reporting that Braun is projected to win the GOP gubernatorial primary
Welcome!
Happy primary day, Hoosiers! Indiana is easily forgotten on the primary calendar, sandwiched as it is between sexier states like Pennsylvania and Maryland (don't look at me like that — have you seen that flag?). But if you care about how well Congress functions, you'll want to pay attention to today's primaries, even if you don't watch "Stranger Things" and "Parks and Rec" on repeat.
As my colleagues recently so beautifully illustrated, there are several parties within the parties in Congress. On the Republican side, there are pragmatists who fall in line with party leadership — and then there are obstructionists who tend to make life harder for them.
This year, there are three open House seats in Indiana that could send either type of representative to Congress. And because these seats are safely Republican, today's contests, not November's, will effectively determine that. Elsewhere in the state, Rep. Victoria Spartz — the Hamlet from Hamilton County — could be the second incumbent representative of the cycle to lose reelection, and GOP primary voters will also choose who will likely become the next chief executive of this state of nearly 7 million people. So yeah, the stakes are high!
We won't have to wait long to find out the winners: Polls close in most of Indiana (the parts in the Eastern time zone) at 6 p.m. Eastern, with the parts of the state in the Central time zone following suit at 7 p.m. Eastern. Follow along with us for the next few hours, won't you?
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
Final thought: Tonight’s primaries show where the party is headed in deep-red states
Braun was the front-runner in the Republican gubernatorial primary tonight, and he ended up winning. But the candidates weren’t that different on many of the issues. As other observers noted, the primary was fought more over big national issues like crime, China, immigration and abortion than over the day-to-day running of the state. The way the race unfolded tells us a lot about the direction of the Republican Party nationally, and the candidates we can expect deep-red states like Indiana to send to Washington. Among other things, that’s meant that the party continues to run conservative anti-abortion candidates despite the position being unpopular, and an often losing one, for Republicans in general.
—Monica Potts, 538