There's just one more primary that we're still watching tonight, but it's a barnburner. We're up to 92 percent of the expected vote counted in the Republican primary for Indiana's 3rd District, and Stutzman is up to 24 percent of the vote, with Smith at 22 percent, Davis at 19 percent and Zay at 17 percent. Smith now trails Stutzman by 1,236 votes.

According to the AP, there are still several thousand votes left to be counted in Allen County, where Smith is currently leading. But can he net 1,236 votes there? I don't know …

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Since 2016, New Mexico's 2nd District has changed hands in every election. Republican Steve Pearce held the district in 2003-2009 and 2011-2019, leaving in the 2008 and 2018 cycles to mount (unsuccessful) bids for Senate and governor, respectively. When he left in 2008, Democrat Harry Teague won the seat, only to lose to Pearce when he returned.

According to Daily Kos Elections, Biden won the current configuration of the seat by 6 points in 2020, but in 2022 Democrat Gabe Vasquez beat incumbent Republican Yvette Herrell by less than 1 point. The seat is about 60 percent Hispanic, and as we've seen change in the Hispanic vote in the last few years, I expect it to remain competitive in the coming cycles.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

My vote might be for Virginia's 2nd District, which is anchored by Virginia Beach. It's been held by seven different members over the past 20 years: five Republicans and two Democrats. Four of those members lost their reelection bids, and the current officeholder, Rep. Jen Kiggans, faces a challenging reelection this fall.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

Here's a good question from our fellow election nerds over at Daily Kos Elections. What say you guys?

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Braun was the front-runner in the Republican gubernatorial primary tonight, and he ended up winning. But the candidates weren’t that different on many of the issues. As other observers noted, the primary was fought more over big national issues like crime, China, immigration and abortion than over the day-to-day running of the state. The way the race unfolded tells us a lot about the direction of the Republican Party nationally, and the candidates we can expect deep-red states like Indiana to send to Washington. Among other things, that’s meant that the party continues to run conservative anti-abortion candidates despite the position being unpopular, and an often losing one, for Republicans in general.

—Monica Potts, 538