Indiana primaries 2024: Spartz survives, big spenders prevail
538 tracked several establishment-versus-insurgent GOP primaries.
Tuesday saw the resolution of several major Republican primaries in Indiana: Voters selected the men who will likely become the state’s next U.S. senator and governor, and three open U.S. House seats were the canvas for fierce primary battles between the establishment and populist wings of the GOP. A maverick Republican incumbent also successfully defended her seat after waffling over her decision to seek reelection.
538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
- ABC News reports Jefferson Shreve is projected to win the nomination in the 6th District
- The AP made a call in Indiana’s 3rd
- Spartz projected to win renomination in 5th District, ABC News reports
- ABC News is now reporting that Mark Messmer is projected to win the 8th District GOP primary
- ABC News is now reporting that Braun is projected to win the GOP gubernatorial primary
Checking in on candidates of color running in Indiana
We're tracking how 11 candidates of color are performing in Indiana's gubernatorial, Senate and House primaries, and it appears that two are on their way to winning party nominations tonight. Democratic Rep. André Carson, of the Indianapolis-based 7th District, has 91 percent of the vote and is projected to win, according to reporting by ABC News. In the Democratic primary for Senate, clinical psychologist Valerie McCray is also projected to win, ABC News reports. She currently has 68 percent of the vote with 47 percent of the expected vote reporting — perhaps a bit of a surprise considering former state Rep. Marc Carmichael outraised her in that contest.
Beyond those two, however, it's looking unlikely any other candidates of color will find victory this evening. In the Democratic primary in the solidly red 4th District, insurance executive Rimpi Girn trails Derrick Holder, 63 percent to 37 percent, and ABC News reports that Holder is projected to win. In the 1st District, Mark Leyva and Ben Ruiz are behind Lake County Councilmember Randy Niemeyer by a significant margin in the GOP primary, with the winner set to take on Democratic Rep. Frank Mrvan. And in the solidly blue 7th District, Gabe Whitley is in last place among the Republican contenders fighting for the right to likely lose to Carson.
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538
A four-way pileup in Indiana’s 3rd
With 81 percent of the expected vote reporting in the GOP primary for Indiana’s 3rd District, things are extremely close and unpredictable. Stutzman has 23 percent of the vote, Smith has 22 percent, Davis has 19 percent and Zay has 18 percent. In terms of raw votes, Stutzman is just 398 votes ahead of Smith.
Stutzman’s lead is built on his strong showing in the northern part of the district, and the good news for him is that, according to the AP, two counties in that region are barely reporting any votes. But the largest number of outstanding votes is probably in Fort Wayne’s Allen County, where Smith is narrowly leading Stutzman. Very suspenseful!
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
Braun is very conservative on abortion
Braun's record in the Senate on abortion has earned him an A+ rating from the anti-abortion Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America. He's introduced several anti-abortion bills, including a parental notification bill last year that would require parents to be notified when their minor child seeks an abortion and give them a chance to stop it. Before the ruling that overturned Roe v. Wade, Braun had suggested that interracial marriage and same-sex marriage, both issues also related to rights to privacy, should be left to the states, before walking that back and saying he'd misunderstood the reporter's question. Still, he has praised Indiana's near-total abortion ban, but he's also said more recently that he expects tweaks in the coming years.
Of course, Braun was only one of many anti-abortion candidates I'm watching tonight. Messmer's projected win in the 8th District (according to reporting by ABC News) adds another anti-abortion victory to the list, and ABC News is now reporting that Baird is projected to win in the 4th District.
—Monica Potts, 538
Why does Spartz face so many challengers?
As Geoffrey just mentioned, with 68 percent of the expected vote reporting, Spartz currently leads the crowded field with 38 percent of the vote, with state Rep. Goodrich, running close behind (32 percent). Political science research suggests female incumbents face more qualified challengers than male incumbents because a history of women's underrepresentation gives the impression that female incumbents are more vulnerable and easier to beat.
But Spartz's situation is unique, as we mentioned earlier on the blog. After two terms, she announced she wouldn't run for reelection in February. And given that House members seem to really hate their jobs, there was no reason to think she was bluffing!
—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor
Final thought: With Spartz surviving, still only one incumbent has lost renomination so far
Spartz came into tonight as clearly one of the most endangered incumbent House members in the country. But with her primary victory, still just one incumbent has met defeat so far this primary season: Republican Rep. Jerry Carl, who lost in an incumbent-versus-incumbent clash in Alabama on March 5 against Rep. Barry Moore due to redistricting pushing the two into the same dark red seat. However, there are many months to go before all primaries are completed, so definitely do not rule out another incumbent going down in a primary.
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538