Indiana primaries 2024: Spartz survives, big spenders prevail
538 tracked several establishment-versus-insurgent GOP primaries.
Tuesday saw the resolution of several major Republican primaries in Indiana: Voters selected the men who will likely become the state’s next U.S. senator and governor, and three open U.S. House seats were the canvas for fierce primary battles between the establishment and populist wings of the GOP. A maverick Republican incumbent also successfully defended her seat after waffling over her decision to seek reelection.
538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
- ABC News reports Jefferson Shreve is projected to win the nomination in the 6th District
- The AP made a call in Indiana’s 3rd
- Spartz projected to win renomination in 5th District, ABC News reports
- ABC News is now reporting that Mark Messmer is projected to win the 8th District GOP primary
- ABC News is now reporting that Braun is projected to win the GOP gubernatorial primary
Why does Spartz face so many challengers?
As Geoffrey just mentioned, with 68 percent of the expected vote reporting, Spartz currently leads the crowded field with 38 percent of the vote, with state Rep. Goodrich, running close behind (32 percent). Political science research suggests female incumbents face more qualified challengers than male incumbents because a history of women's underrepresentation gives the impression that female incumbents are more vulnerable and easier to beat.
But Spartz's situation is unique, as we mentioned earlier on the blog. After two terms, she announced she wouldn't run for reelection in February. And given that House members seem to really hate their jobs, there was no reason to think she was bluffing!
—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor
So far, Indiana might be Haley's best state since she withdrew
I know, I know, the presidential primary is totally over, but since it's on the ballot anyway, quick update! With 54 percent of the expected vote reporting, Haley currently has 22 percent of the vote to Trump's 78 percent. If that margin holds, it will be Haley's best showing in a primary since she dropped out of the race on March 6th.
—Mary Radcliffe, 538
Spartz still holds edge in 5th District GOP race
More votes have come in, but Spartz continues to hold a small but meaningful advantage over Goodrich in the the 5th District GOP primary. With 62 percent of the expected vote reporting, Spartz has 38 percent to Goodrich's 32 percent. The vote shares across the district's different counties do not differ dramatically, so Goodrich is going to need some notable shifts from what we've seen so far to catch Spartz. Thing is, he and Spartz are from the same area of the district. In the state legislature, he represents central Hamilton County, including its county seat of Noblesville, which is also where Spartz lives. So he can't count on that part of the district to come in big for him to overtake Spartz, although Hamilton County is his strongest place tonight. But he still trails Spartz there 38 percent to 36 percent.
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538
Braun headed for victory in his unusual run for governor — but in a historically weak fashion
It's worth noting that Braun is doing something rare: seeking to become governor as a member of the U.S. Senate. In 2021, SmartPolitics found that just 21 sitting or former U.S. senators had been elected governor while 153 sitting or former governors had been elected or appointed to the Senate. This isn't necessarily surprising: After all, a senator has six-year terms and no term limits, while governors in 48 states have four-year terms (two years in New Hampshire and Vermont) and often do have term limits.
I took a look at the six sitting senators who ran for governor from 1990 to 2024, and I found that Braun's primary vote share (a little under 40 percent) is worse than any among this small group — in part because he arguably has more significant competition than the others faced, including Indiana's current lieutenant governor. The senator who won the lowest percentage prior to Braun was Republican Sen. Frank Murkowski, who won 70 percent in the 2002 GOP primary for Alaska's governorship. After Murkowski won that November, he became governor and appointed his daughter, Lisa Murkowski, to fill his vacant former Senate seat, which she still holds today. The elder Murkowski became extremely unpopular, however, and lost the 2006 GOP primary for governor to Sarah Palin, the former chair of the state's Oil and Gas Conservation Commission.
The other four sitting senators seeking the governorship in this period all won at least 80 percent in their primaries: Sens. Sam Brownback of Kansas (2010), Jon Corzine of New Jersey (2005), Dirk Kempthorne of Idaho (1998) and Pete Wilson of California (1990).
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538
Final thought: With Spartz surviving, still only one incumbent has lost renomination so far
Spartz came into tonight as clearly one of the most endangered incumbent House members in the country. But with her primary victory, still just one incumbent has met defeat so far this primary season: Republican Rep. Jerry Carl, who lost in an incumbent-versus-incumbent clash in Alabama on March 5 against Rep. Barry Moore due to redistricting pushing the two into the same dark red seat. However, there are many months to go before all primaries are completed, so definitely do not rule out another incumbent going down in a primary.
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538