Indiana primaries 2024: Spartz survives, big spenders prevail
538 tracked several establishment-versus-insurgent GOP primaries.
Tuesday saw the resolution of several major Republican primaries in Indiana: Voters selected the men who will likely become the state’s next U.S. senator and governor, and three open U.S. House seats were the canvas for fierce primary battles between the establishment and populist wings of the GOP. A maverick Republican incumbent also successfully defended her seat after waffling over her decision to seek reelection.
538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
- ABC News reports Jefferson Shreve is projected to win the nomination in the 6th District
- The AP made a call in Indiana’s 3rd
- Spartz projected to win renomination in 5th District, ABC News reports
- ABC News is now reporting that Mark Messmer is projected to win the 8th District GOP primary
- ABC News is now reporting that Braun is projected to win the GOP gubernatorial primary
Indiana voters' concerns are similar to what we see nationwide
That's interesting, Mary, and in line with what we see nationwide. Voters are particularly down on the economy under President Biden. When PerryUndem, in partnership with 538, conducted a focus group with voters about the economy, most named cost-of-living issues as their specific economic concern. Some were also worried about the job market, layoffs and the price of housing. In general, Trump-leaners gave Biden worse marks on the economy, but Biden-leaners weren't thrilled about it either. They were less specific when it came to what they wanted a president to do about it, however.
And Democratic and independent voters are very concerned about the state of democracy and worry about a repeat of Jan. 6. Trump's trials and statements on the campaign trail haven't eased their concerns. Republicans worry about the state of democracy as well, but they seem to be influenced more by Trump's repeated falsehoods that the 2020 election was stolen and by conspiracy claims about noncitizens voting.
—Monica Potts, 538
Spartz has early edge in 5th District GOP primary
Checking in on Rep. Victoria Spartz, the most endangered incumbent we've got our eye on, and she's out to an early lead in the 5th District Republican primary — but one that's far from insurmountable. With 23 percent of the expected vote reporting, Spartz leads Chuck Goodrich 40 percent to 32 percent. There's quite a ways to go, but Spartz does lead in the three counties that have reported any votes, including Hamilton, the sizable Indianapolis suburban-exurban county that will likely make up close to half the primary vote in this district.
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538
GOP primary voters in Indiana are focused on the economy
While we're waiting for more results, let's check in on the issues Indiana voters are focused on in this election. According to a March Emerson College/The Hill poll, 44 percent of voters who said they planned to vote in the Republican primary named "the economy (jobs, inflation, taxes)" as the most important issue facing the state, far higher than the second most chosen option of immigration, which was selected by 17 percent of GOP primary voters, and crime, selected by 12 percent. No other issue was chosen by more than 7 percent of GOP primary voters.
Democratic primary voters, on the other hand, see things very differently: Just 18 percent chose the economy, while 25 percent selected "threats to democracy." Another 16 percent chose "abortion access" and 10 percent chose education.
—Mary Radcliffe, 538
Candidates of color to watch in Indiana
Tonight, we'll be monitoring how candidates of color perform in primaries for governor, U.S. Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives. Overall, 11 people of color are running in these contests — six Republicans and five Democrats.
The most likely primary winner is Democratic Rep. André Carson, who is Indiana's lone Black representative on Capitol Hill (and was also only the second Muslim ever elected to Congress). Democrats in the solidly blue 7th District look set to renominate him against two little-known Black Democrats.
In the dark-red 4th District, insurance executive Rimpi Girn is an Indian immigrant who has raised at least a little money, so she may be the favorite for the Democratic nomination — but a November defeat against GOP Rep. Jim Baird is a near-certainty.
In the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, clinical psychologist Valerie McCray is running a long-shot race to become the state's first Black U.S. senator. She ran for the state's 2022 Senate contest but failed to make the ballot and briefly ran for president in 2020. However, she's raised only $14,800, less than the $112,000 former state Rep. Marc Carmichael has brought in. Still, either Democrat will be a huge underdog against Rep. Jim Banks in the general election.
It's less clear if any candidate of color has a shot at winning a GOP primary. On paper, the contender with the best chance might be "Honest Gabe" Whitley, who has raised $364,000 in the solidly Democratic 7th District, making him the only Republican in that race to have reported raising anything. But Whitley is a lightning rod of controversy: Among other things, he faces accusations of concocting false donors and a fictional veterans organization to back his candidacy.
In the 5th District, speech-language pathologist and business owner Raju Chinthala is running, but he's unlikely to finish ahead of the incumbent Spartz or her leading challenger, Goodrich. Two Republican Latino candidates are running in the 1st District — Mark Levya and Ben Ruiz — but Lake County Councilmember Randy Niemeyer is the party's preferred candidate to take on Democratic Rep. Frank Mrvan.
Lastly, the best-known Republican on this list is Curtis Hill, who is making a long-shot bid for governor. Hill lost renomination for state attorney general in 2020 after allegations came out that he had groped a group of women at a party.
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538
Final thought: With Spartz surviving, still only one incumbent has lost renomination so far
Spartz came into tonight as clearly one of the most endangered incumbent House members in the country. But with her primary victory, still just one incumbent has met defeat so far this primary season: Republican Rep. Jerry Carl, who lost in an incumbent-versus-incumbent clash in Alabama on March 5 against Rep. Barry Moore due to redistricting pushing the two into the same dark red seat. However, there are many months to go before all primaries are completed, so definitely do not rule out another incumbent going down in a primary.
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538