Indiana primaries 2024: Spartz survives, big spenders prevail
538 tracked several establishment-versus-insurgent GOP primaries.
Tuesday saw the resolution of several major Republican primaries in Indiana: Voters selected the men who will likely become the state’s next U.S. senator and governor, and three open U.S. House seats were the canvas for fierce primary battles between the establishment and populist wings of the GOP. A maverick Republican incumbent also successfully defended her seat after waffling over her decision to seek reelection.
538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
- ABC News reports Jefferson Shreve is projected to win the nomination in the 6th District
- The AP made a call in Indiana’s 3rd
- Spartz projected to win renomination in 5th District, ABC News reports
- ABC News is now reporting that Mark Messmer is projected to win the 8th District GOP primary
- ABC News is now reporting that Braun is projected to win the GOP gubernatorial primary
Shreve is leading in Marion County too
Indianapolis’s Marion County is reporting votes now in Indiana’s 6th, too. And according to the AP, Shreve is beating Speedy there 38 percent to 29 percent, likely cutting off any chance for the more conservative Speedy to prevail.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
Messmer projected winner in GOP 8th District primary by the AP
The Associated Press has projected that state Sen. Mark Messmer has won the GOP nomination in the 8th District. He will likely win the general election this fall. ABC News is not reporting a projection in the race yet, but Messmer has about 43 percent of the vote — 27 percent more than his closest challenger — with 40 percent of the expected vote reporting.
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections
Shreve still in the driver’s seat
We’re up to about half of the expected vote counted in Indiana‘s 6th District, and Jefferson Shreve is still holding steady in the lead with 29 percent. Jamison Carrier and Mike Speedy are running behind at 21 and 20 percent, respectively.
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections
Banks largely unknown to Indiana Republicans
You're right, Irena. Banks is favored to win in November due to the state's partisan lean, but interestingly, many Hoosiers don't yet know anything about him. Because the Senate primary was uncontested, Banks hasn't had a chance yet to define himself to voters. According to an April poll from SurveyUSA/Howey Politics Indiana/State Affairs, 55 percent of Republican primary voters in the Hoosier state were not familiar with him. Of the remaining 45 percent, 34 percent said they had a favorable opinion of Banks, and 10 percent said they had an unfavorable opinion.
—Mary Radcliffe, 538
GOP primary voters in Indiana are focused on the economy
While we're waiting for more results, let's check in on the issues Indiana voters are focused on in this election. According to a March Emerson College/The Hill poll, 44 percent of voters who said they planned to vote in the Republican primary named "the economy (jobs, inflation, taxes)" as the most important issue facing the state, far higher than the second most chosen option of immigration, which was selected by 17 percent of GOP primary voters, and crime, selected by 12 percent. No other issue was chosen by more than 7 percent of GOP primary voters.
Democratic primary voters, on the other hand, see things very differently: Just 18 percent chose the economy, while 25 percent selected "threats to democracy." Another 16 percent chose "abortion access" and 10 percent chose education.
—Mary Radcliffe, 538