Indiana primaries 2024: Spartz survives, big spenders prevail

538 tracked several establishment-versus-insurgent GOP primaries.

Tuesday saw the resolution of several major Republican primaries in Indiana: Voters selected the men who will likely become the state’s next U.S. senator and governor, and three open U.S. House seats were the canvas for fierce primary battles between the establishment and populist wings of the GOP. A maverick Republican incumbent also successfully defended her seat after waffling over her decision to seek reelection.

538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


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Any final thoughts?

With most of today’s primaries now projected, we’re going to sign off soon. But first: What were everyone’s takeaways from the night?

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


The AP made a call in Indiana’s 3rd

While ABC News is not yet reporting a projection in the tight race for the GOP nomination in Indiana’s 3rd District, the AP has made a call: They are saying that Stutzman will be the winner. That would make the 3rd District today’s only win for the insurgent wing of the Republican Party: Stutzman was an OG tea partier who helped force out former Speaker John Boehner in 2014.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


Checking in on anti-abortion candidates

Shreve’s projected win in the 6th Congressional District is another win for anti-abortion candidates. Shreve’s website describes him as a pro-life Catholic who would work to protect the unborn. That said, he sang a different tune when he ran for Indianapolis mayor last year, saying that mayors aren’t charged with making abortion policy. Of course, Indianapolis is much more Democratic than the rest of this solid red state, and Shreve will have a chance to weigh in on national abortion policy if he is sent to Congress in November. His win means that Republicans could be sending at least five anti-abortion representatives to the House next year, in addition to Banks, their likely new senator.

—Monica Potts, 538


Answer: Bloody 2nds all over

Daily Kos Elections quote-tweeted their own tweet with the 10 districts with the lowest cumulative electoral margins between 2012 and 2020. Another 2nd District, this one in Nebraska, tops the list with a total of 12.7 points! Republican Rep. Don Bacon is up for reelection there in what looks to be a competitive race this November.

—Irena Li, 538


Indiana voters' concerns are similar to what we see nationwide

That's interesting, Mary, and in line with what we see nationwide. Voters are particularly down on the economy under President Biden. When PerryUndem, in partnership with 538, conducted a focus group with voters about the economy, most named cost-of-living issues as their specific economic concern. Some were also worried about the job market, layoffs and the price of housing. In general, Trump-leaners gave Biden worse marks on the economy, but Biden-leaners weren't thrilled about it either. They were less specific when it came to what they wanted a president to do about it, however.

And Democratic and independent voters are very concerned about the state of democracy and worry about a repeat of Jan. 6. Trump's trials and statements on the campaign trail haven't eased their concerns. Republicans worry about the state of democracy as well, but they seem to be influenced more by Trump's repeated falsehoods that the 2020 election was stolen and by conspiracy claims about noncitizens voting.

—Monica Potts, 538