Indiana primaries 2024: Spartz survives, big spenders prevail
538 tracked several establishment-versus-insurgent GOP primaries.
Tuesday saw the resolution of several major Republican primaries in Indiana: Voters selected the men who will likely become the state’s next U.S. senator and governor, and three open U.S. House seats were the canvas for fierce primary battles between the establishment and populist wings of the GOP. A maverick Republican incumbent also successfully defended her seat after waffling over her decision to seek reelection.
538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
- ABC News reports Jefferson Shreve is projected to win the nomination in the 6th District
- The AP made a call in Indiana’s 3rd
- Spartz projected to win renomination in 5th District, ABC News reports
- ABC News is now reporting that Mark Messmer is projected to win the 8th District GOP primary
- ABC News is now reporting that Braun is projected to win the GOP gubernatorial primary
Any final thoughts?
With most of today’s primaries now projected, we’re going to sign off soon. But first: What were everyone’s takeaways from the night?
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
The AP made a call in Indiana’s 3rd
While ABC News is not yet reporting a projection in the tight race for the GOP nomination in Indiana’s 3rd District, the AP has made a call: They are saying that Stutzman will be the winner. That would make the 3rd District today’s only win for the insurgent wing of the Republican Party: Stutzman was an OG tea partier who helped force out former Speaker John Boehner in 2014.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
Checking in on anti-abortion candidates
Shreve’s projected win in the 6th Congressional District is another win for anti-abortion candidates. Shreve’s website describes him as a pro-life Catholic who would work to protect the unborn. That said, he sang a different tune when he ran for Indianapolis mayor last year, saying that mayors aren’t charged with making abortion policy. Of course, Indianapolis is much more Democratic than the rest of this solid red state, and Shreve will have a chance to weigh in on national abortion policy if he is sent to Congress in November. His win means that Republicans could be sending at least five anti-abortion representatives to the House next year, in addition to Banks, their likely new senator.
—Monica Potts, 538
Answer: Bloody 2nds all over
Daily Kos Elections quote-tweeted their own tweet with the 10 districts with the lowest cumulative electoral margins between 2012 and 2020. Another 2nd District, this one in Nebraska, tops the list with a total of 12.7 points! Republican Rep. Don Bacon is up for reelection there in what looks to be a competitive race this November.
—Irena Li, 538
Is the GOP lagging on nominating women?
Over on Bluesky, Boston magazine contributing editor David Bernstein shared that the GOP has nominated men in all 10 open-seat solid-Republican districts going into tonight. A similar outcome for Democrats would be shocking, given that a vast majority of Democrats say that there are too few women in politics. But the GOP doesn’t share the same sentiment.
In 2020, we watched where Republicans were nominating women and found that, through August 2020, only 6 out of the 77 Republican women who had won their primaries did so in a safe Republican seat. A whopping 49 of those women won in safe Democratic seats.
In other words, the GOP women won primaries in places where they wouldn’t win in November. We’ll have more to say about that this year, after a few more primaries have passed.
—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor