Here's a good question from our fellow election nerds over at Daily Kos Elections. What say you guys?

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

ABC News reports that Randy Niemeyer is projected to win the GOP primary in Indiana's 1st District. This primary wasn't competitive — the party establishment coalesced around Niemeyer — but the result is notable because the 1st District is Indiana's only congressional seat that's competitive in the general election. Niemeyer will now attempt to unseat Democratic Rep. Frank Mrvan in November in this seat that voted for Biden by just 8 percentage points in 2020.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

ABC News is reporting that wealthy businessman Jefferson Shreve is projected to win the GOP nomination in Indiana's 6th District, east of Indianapolis, with 81 percent of the expected vote reporting. Shreve, who poured millions of his own wealth into the race and who recently lost a bid for mayor of Indianapolis, is a shoo-in in the general election to replace Rep. Greg Pence. With 28 percent of the vote, he's outpacing fellow Republicans Mike Speedy and Jamison Carrier.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

We're tracking how female Democrats and Republicans are doing in Indiana's gubernatorial, Senate and House primaries. As I mentioned earlier, two out of the state's nine sitting House members are women, but the state has never had a female senator or governor.

Among Democrats, women are largely running in places where winning in November is a longshot; in many cases (like the gubernatorial race, and in the 2nd and 6th District), they were unopposed.

Among Republicans, Rep. Houchin has won reelection in the 9th District, and Rep. Spartz has won reelection too, in the 5th District, despite a well-funded challenge. In the 3rd District, Former Allen Circuit Court Judge Wendy Davis is trailing, but that race is still too close to call. And as we already reported, the sitting lieutenant governor, Suzanne Crouch, wasn't able to leverage that role into winning her party's nomination for governor.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

Another ex-congressman may make a comeback in southwestern Indiana's 8th District — once one of the most competitive seats in the country but now a reliably Republican seat. The two front-runners in the GOP primary here appear to be state Sen. Mark Messmer and former Rep. John Hostettler. Establishment and tea party Republican groups have invested heavily in this race: America Leads Action has spent $1.6 million to help Messmer and hurt Hostettler, and Protect Freedom PAC is airing ads for Hostettler.

But the main divide in this race seems to be less about governing philosophy and more about foreign policy. For instance, Protect Freedom PAC — which represents former Rep. Ron Paul's libertarian wing of the party — may be with Hostettler because he and Paul were two of only six Republicans who opposed the Iraq war back in 2002. And Hostettler's record on Israel has provoked strong opposition from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee and Republican Jewish Coalition. Citing anti-Israel votes Hostettler took in Congress as well as a book he wrote that blamed the Iraq war on Jewish Americans' efforts to help Israel, these two groups have dropped $2.2 million to attack Hostettler or boost Messmer.

In total, pro-Messmer, anti-Hostettler outside groups have outspent pro-Hostettler, anti-Messmer groups by a whopping $5.1 million to $793,000. (And it's not like Hostettler himself has been able to fight back; Messmer has outraised him $763,000 to $41,000.)

Don't write off two other candidates, either. Surgeon Richard Moss, who has pledged to join the Freedom Caucus, has raised $556,000, while 28-year-old Army reservist Dominick Kavanaugh took in $528,000. That said, given the financial disparity, any candidate other than Messmer has to be considered an underdog.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538