As Geoffrey just mentioned, with 68 percent of the expected vote reporting, Spartz currently leads the crowded field with 38 percent of the vote, with state Rep. Goodrich, running close behind (32 percent). Political science research suggests female incumbents face more qualified challengers than male incumbents because a history of women's underrepresentation gives the impression that female incumbents are more vulnerable and easier to beat.

But Spartz's situation is unique, as we mentioned earlier on the blog. After two terms, she announced she wouldn't run for reelection in February. And given that House members seem to really hate their jobs, there was no reason to think she was bluffing!

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

I know, I know, the presidential primary is totally over, but since it's on the ballot anyway, quick update! With 54 percent of the expected vote reporting, Haley currently has 22 percent of the vote to Trump's 78 percent. If that margin holds, it will be Haley's best showing in a primary since she dropped out of the race on March 6th.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

More votes have come in, but Spartz continues to hold a small but meaningful advantage over Goodrich in the the 5th District GOP primary. With 62 percent of the expected vote reporting, Spartz has 38 percent to Goodrich's 32 percent. The vote shares across the district's different counties do not differ dramatically, so Goodrich is going to need some notable shifts from what we've seen so far to catch Spartz. Thing is, he and Spartz are from the same area of the district. In the state legislature, he represents central Hamilton County, including its county seat of Noblesville, which is also where Spartz lives. So he can't count on that part of the district to come in big for him to overtake Spartz, although Hamilton County is his strongest place tonight. But he still trails Spartz there 38 percent to 36 percent.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

It's worth noting that Braun is doing something rare: seeking to become governor as a member of the U.S. Senate. In 2021, SmartPolitics found that just 21 sitting or former U.S. senators had been elected governor while 153 sitting or former governors had been elected or appointed to the Senate. This isn't necessarily surprising: After all, a senator has six-year terms and no term limits, while governors in 48 states have four-year terms (two years in New Hampshire and Vermont) and often do have term limits.

I took a look at the six sitting senators who ran for governor from 1990 to 2024, and I found that Braun's primary vote share (a little under 40 percent) is worse than any among this small group — in part because he arguably has more significant competition than the others faced, including Indiana's current lieutenant governor. The senator who won the lowest percentage prior to Braun was Republican Sen. Frank Murkowski, who won 70 percent in the 2002 GOP primary for Alaska's governorship. After Murkowski won that November, he became governor and appointed his daughter, Lisa Murkowski, to fill his vacant former Senate seat, which she still holds today. The elder Murkowski became extremely unpopular, however, and lost the 2006 GOP primary for governor to Sarah Palin, the former chair of the state's Oil and Gas Conservation Commission.

The other four sitting senators seeking the governorship in this period all won at least 80 percent in their primaries: Sens. Sam Brownback of Kansas (2010), Jon Corzine of New Jersey (2005), Dirk Kempthorne of Idaho (1998) and Pete Wilson of California (1990).

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

Another ex-congressman may make a comeback in southwestern Indiana's 8th District — once one of the most competitive seats in the country but now a reliably Republican seat. The two front-runners in the GOP primary here appear to be state Sen. Mark Messmer and former Rep. John Hostettler. Establishment and tea party Republican groups have invested heavily in this race: America Leads Action has spent $1.6 million to help Messmer and hurt Hostettler, and Protect Freedom PAC is airing ads for Hostettler.

But the main divide in this race seems to be less about governing philosophy and more about foreign policy. For instance, Protect Freedom PAC — which represents former Rep. Ron Paul's libertarian wing of the party — may be with Hostettler because he and Paul were two of only six Republicans who opposed the Iraq war back in 2002. And Hostettler's record on Israel has provoked strong opposition from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee and Republican Jewish Coalition. Citing anti-Israel votes Hostettler took in Congress as well as a book he wrote that blamed the Iraq war on Jewish Americans' efforts to help Israel, these two groups have dropped $2.2 million to attack Hostettler or boost Messmer.

In total, pro-Messmer, anti-Hostettler outside groups have outspent pro-Hostettler, anti-Messmer groups by a whopping $5.1 million to $793,000. (And it's not like Hostettler himself has been able to fight back; Messmer has outraised him $763,000 to $41,000.)

Don't write off two other candidates, either. Surgeon Richard Moss, who has pledged to join the Freedom Caucus, has raised $556,000, while 28-year-old Army reservist Dominick Kavanaugh took in $528,000. That said, given the financial disparity, any candidate other than Messmer has to be considered an underdog.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538