Indiana primaries 2024: Spartz survives, big spenders prevail

538 tracked several establishment-versus-insurgent GOP primaries.

Tuesday saw the resolution of several major Republican primaries in Indiana: Voters selected the men who will likely become the state’s next U.S. senator and governor, and three open U.S. House seats were the canvas for fierce primary battles between the establishment and populist wings of the GOP. A maverick Republican incumbent also successfully defended her seat after waffling over her decision to seek reelection.

538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


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Republicans likely won’t nominate a woman for Governor

Right now there are more women serving as governors than at any other time — but it's just 12. Of those 12, only four are Republican — Noem of South Dakota, Huckabee Sanders of Arkansas, Ivey of Alabama and Reynolds of Iowa.

Looks like Republicans probably won’t be adding another in Crouch. Crouch was in a good position, too, as the current lieutenant governor of the state. One reason women struggle to win elections at that level is their lack of access to the pipeline. But that pipeline obviously isn't a guarantee.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor


Associated Press projects Braun the winner in GOP gubernatorial primary

The AP has projected the Republican primary in the Indiana governor’s race for Braun, who will likely win the general election in November. ABC News is not reporting a projection in the race yet, but Braun is ahead with 38 percent of the vote with about 15 percent of the expected vote reporting.

—Monica Potts, 538


Shreve’s support is both deep and broad

Yeah, Jacob, and according to The New York Times’s map of the results in Indiana’s 6th, Shreve is doing quite well in the district’s non-Indianapolis counties. That’s a good sign for Shreve and a bad sign for Carrier because Shreve is from Indianapolis, while Carrier is not; if Carrier is going to win, he probably needs to do better in those counties. Furthermore, Shreve is doing much better in those counties than his Indianapolis neighbor, Speedy. We don’t yet know how Indianapolis’s Marion County voted, but Speedy will need to have crushed it there if he is going to overcome Shreve’s advantage in the outlying counties.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


Polls are now closed everywhere in Indiana

Most of Indiana's polls closed at 6 p.m. Eastern, but two parts of the state are in the Central Time Zone and just had their polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern: the northwestern corner of the state (Chicago metro/areas around Gary) and the southwestern corner (Evansville).

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538


Israel policy has inspired heavy spending in the 8th District

Another ex-congressman may make a comeback in southwestern Indiana's 8th District — once one of the most competitive seats in the country but now a reliably Republican seat. The two front-runners in the GOP primary here appear to be state Sen. Mark Messmer and former Rep. John Hostettler. Establishment and tea party Republican groups have invested heavily in this race: America Leads Action has spent $1.6 million to help Messmer and hurt Hostettler, and Protect Freedom PAC is airing ads for Hostettler.

But the main divide in this race seems to be less about governing philosophy and more about foreign policy. For instance, Protect Freedom PAC — which represents former Rep. Ron Paul's libertarian wing of the party — may be with Hostettler because he and Paul were two of only six Republicans who opposed the Iraq war back in 2002. And Hostettler's record on Israel has provoked strong opposition from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee and Republican Jewish Coalition. Citing anti-Israel votes Hostettler took in Congress as well as a book he wrote that blamed the Iraq war on Jewish Americans' efforts to help Israel, these two groups have dropped $2.2 million to attack Hostettler or boost Messmer.

In total, pro-Messmer, anti-Hostettler outside groups have outspent pro-Hostettler, anti-Messmer groups by a whopping $5.1 million to $793,000. (And it's not like Hostettler himself has been able to fight back; Messmer has outraised him $763,000 to $41,000.)

Don't write off two other candidates, either. Surgeon Richard Moss, who has pledged to join the Freedom Caucus, has raised $556,000, while 28-year-old Army reservist Dominick Kavanaugh took in $528,000. That said, given the financial disparity, any candidate other than Messmer has to be considered an underdog.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538