Indiana primaries 2024: Spartz survives, big spenders prevail

538 tracked several establishment-versus-insurgent GOP primaries.

Tuesday saw the resolution of several major Republican primaries in Indiana: Voters selected the men who will likely become the state’s next U.S. senator and governor, and three open U.S. House seats were the canvas for fierce primary battles between the establishment and populist wings of the GOP. A maverick Republican incumbent also successfully defended her seat after waffling over her decision to seek reelection.

538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


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Early returns in the 6th District

We’ve gotten a trickle of votes counted in the 6th District, which includes suburbs and rural areas east of Indianapolis. With 15 percent of the expected vote reporting, Jefferson Shreve, who has dipped into his considerable pockets to self fund a bid to the tune of $4.5 million is ahead with 30 percent, while car dealership consultant Jamison Carrier is in second with 24 percent.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections


Indiana voters' concerns are similar to what we see nationwide

That's interesting, Mary, and in line with what we see nationwide. Voters are particularly down on the economy under President Biden. When PerryUndem, in partnership with 538, conducted a focus group with voters about the economy, most named cost-of-living issues as their specific economic concern. Some were also worried about the job market, layoffs and the price of housing. In general, Trump-leaners gave Biden worse marks on the economy, but Biden-leaners weren't thrilled about it either. They were less specific when it came to what they wanted a president to do about it, however.

And Democratic and independent voters are very concerned about the state of democracy and worry about a repeat of Jan. 6. Trump's trials and statements on the campaign trail haven't eased their concerns. Republicans worry about the state of democracy as well, but they seem to be influenced more by Trump's repeated falsehoods that the 2020 election was stolen and by conspiracy claims about noncitizens voting.

—Monica Potts, 538


Spartz has early edge in 5th District GOP primary

Checking in on Rep. Victoria Spartz, the most endangered incumbent we've got our eye on, and she's out to an early lead in the 5th District Republican primary — but one that's far from insurmountable. With 23 percent of the expected vote reporting, Spartz leads Chuck Goodrich 40 percent to 32 percent. There's quite a ways to go, but Spartz does lead in the three counties that have reported any votes, including Hamilton, the sizable Indianapolis suburban-exurban county that will likely make up close to half the primary vote in this district.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538


GOP primary voters in Indiana are focused on the economy

While we're waiting for more results, let's check in on the issues Indiana voters are focused on in this election. According to a March Emerson College/The Hill poll, 44 percent of voters who said they planned to vote in the Republican primary named "the economy (jobs, inflation, taxes)" as the most important issue facing the state, far higher than the second most chosen option of immigration, which was selected by 17 percent of GOP primary voters, and crime, selected by 12 percent. No other issue was chosen by more than 7 percent of GOP primary voters.

Democratic primary voters, on the other hand, see things very differently: Just 18 percent chose the economy, while 25 percent selected "threats to democracy." Another 16 percent chose "abortion access" and 10 percent chose education.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538


Israel policy has inspired heavy spending in the 8th District

Another ex-congressman may make a comeback in southwestern Indiana's 8th District — once one of the most competitive seats in the country but now a reliably Republican seat. The two front-runners in the GOP primary here appear to be state Sen. Mark Messmer and former Rep. John Hostettler. Establishment and tea party Republican groups have invested heavily in this race: America Leads Action has spent $1.6 million to help Messmer and hurt Hostettler, and Protect Freedom PAC is airing ads for Hostettler.

But the main divide in this race seems to be less about governing philosophy and more about foreign policy. For instance, Protect Freedom PAC — which represents former Rep. Ron Paul's libertarian wing of the party — may be with Hostettler because he and Paul were two of only six Republicans who opposed the Iraq war back in 2002. And Hostettler's record on Israel has provoked strong opposition from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee and Republican Jewish Coalition. Citing anti-Israel votes Hostettler took in Congress as well as a book he wrote that blamed the Iraq war on Jewish Americans' efforts to help Israel, these two groups have dropped $2.2 million to attack Hostettler or boost Messmer.

In total, pro-Messmer, anti-Hostettler outside groups have outspent pro-Hostettler, anti-Messmer groups by a whopping $5.1 million to $793,000. (And it's not like Hostettler himself has been able to fight back; Messmer has outraised him $763,000 to $41,000.)

Don't write off two other candidates, either. Surgeon Richard Moss, who has pledged to join the Freedom Caucus, has raised $556,000, while 28-year-old Army reservist Dominick Kavanaugh took in $528,000. That said, given the financial disparity, any candidate other than Messmer has to be considered an underdog.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538