Indiana primaries 2024: Spartz survives, big spenders prevail
538 tracked several establishment-versus-insurgent GOP primaries.
Tuesday saw the resolution of several major Republican primaries in Indiana: Voters selected the men who will likely become the state’s next U.S. senator and governor, and three open U.S. House seats were the canvas for fierce primary battles between the establishment and populist wings of the GOP. A maverick Republican incumbent also successfully defended her seat after waffling over her decision to seek reelection.
538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
- ABC News reports Jefferson Shreve is projected to win the nomination in the 6th District
- The AP made a call in Indiana’s 3rd
- Spartz projected to win renomination in 5th District, ABC News reports
- ABC News is now reporting that Mark Messmer is projected to win the 8th District GOP primary
- ABC News is now reporting that Braun is projected to win the GOP gubernatorial primary
Banks largely unknown to Indiana Republicans
You're right, Irena. Banks is favored to win in November due to the state's partisan lean, but interestingly, many Hoosiers don't yet know anything about him. Because the Senate primary was uncontested, Banks hasn't had a chance yet to define himself to voters. According to an April poll from SurveyUSA/Howey Politics Indiana/State Affairs, 55 percent of Republican primary voters in the Hoosier state were not familiar with him. Of the remaining 45 percent, 34 percent said they had a favorable opinion of Banks, and 10 percent said they had an unfavorable opinion.
—Mary Radcliffe, 538
ABC News is now reporting that Braun is projected to win the GOP gubernatorial primary
ABC News reports that Sen. Mike Braun is projected to win the Republican primary in the Indiana governor's race, making him the favorite to win in the general election this fall.
—Monica Potts, 538
A lone Senate projection
ABC News reports that Valerie McCray is projected to win the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate. With 21 percent of the expected vote reporting, McCray has 67 percent of the vote over Marc Carmichael's 33 percent. McCray will face long odds against Rep. Jim Banks, the Republicans' one and only candidate on their primary ballot today, in November.
—Irena Li, 538
Is the GOP lagging on nominating women?
Over on Bluesky, Boston magazine contributing editor David Bernstein shared that the GOP has nominated men in all 10 open-seat solid-Republican districts going into tonight. A similar outcome for Democrats would be shocking, given that a vast majority of Democrats say that there are too few women in politics. But the GOP doesn’t share the same sentiment.
In 2020, we watched where Republicans were nominating women and found that, through August 2020, only 6 out of the 77 Republican women who had won their primaries did so in a safe Republican seat. A whopping 49 of those women won in safe Democratic seats.
In other words, the GOP women won primaries in places where they wouldn’t win in November. We’ll have more to say about that this year, after a few more primaries have passed.
—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor
Spartz projected to win renomination in 5th District, ABC News reports
ABC News is reporting that Spartz is projected to win the Republican primary in Indiana's 5th District. Spartz leads 39 percent to 33 percent over Goodrich with 92 percent of the expected vote reporting. It wasn't easy for "Hamlet from Hamilton" — Spartz announced in February 2023 that she wouldn't run for reelection, but changed her mind in February 2024 — but she now stands an excellent chance of returning to Congress in 2025 from her safely red seat.
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538