As Geoffrey just mentioned, with 68 percent of the expected vote reporting, Spartz currently leads the crowded field with 38 percent of the vote, with state Rep. Goodrich, running close behind (32 percent). Political science research suggests female incumbents face more qualified challengers than male incumbents because a history of women's underrepresentation gives the impression that female incumbents are more vulnerable and easier to beat.

But Spartz's situation is unique, as we mentioned earlier on the blog. After two terms, she announced she wouldn't run for reelection in February. And given that House members seem to really hate their jobs, there was no reason to think she was bluffing!

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

I know, I know, the presidential primary is totally over, but since it's on the ballot anyway, quick update! With 54 percent of the expected vote reporting, Haley currently has 22 percent of the vote to Trump's 78 percent. If that margin holds, it will be Haley's best showing in a primary since she dropped out of the race on March 6th.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

More votes have come in, but Spartz continues to hold a small but meaningful advantage over Goodrich in the the 5th District GOP primary. With 62 percent of the expected vote reporting, Spartz has 38 percent to Goodrich's 32 percent. The vote shares across the district's different counties do not differ dramatically, so Goodrich is going to need some notable shifts from what we've seen so far to catch Spartz. Thing is, he and Spartz are from the same area of the district. In the state legislature, he represents central Hamilton County, including its county seat of Noblesville, which is also where Spartz lives. So he can't count on that part of the district to come in big for him to overtake Spartz, although Hamilton County is his strongest place tonight. But he still trails Spartz there 38 percent to 36 percent.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

It's worth noting that Braun is doing something rare: seeking to become governor as a member of the U.S. Senate. In 2021, SmartPolitics found that just 21 sitting or former U.S. senators had been elected governor while 153 sitting or former governors had been elected or appointed to the Senate. This isn't necessarily surprising: After all, a senator has six-year terms and no term limits, while governors in 48 states have four-year terms (two years in New Hampshire and Vermont) and often do have term limits.

I took a look at the six sitting senators who ran for governor from 1990 to 2024, and I found that Braun's primary vote share (a little under 40 percent) is worse than any among this small group — in part because he arguably has more significant competition than the others faced, including Indiana's current lieutenant governor. The senator who won the lowest percentage prior to Braun was Republican Sen. Frank Murkowski, who won 70 percent in the 2002 GOP primary for Alaska's governorship. After Murkowski won that November, he became governor and appointed his daughter, Lisa Murkowski, to fill his vacant former Senate seat, which she still holds today. The elder Murkowski became extremely unpopular, however, and lost the 2006 GOP primary for governor to Sarah Palin, the former chair of the state's Oil and Gas Conservation Commission.

The other four sitting senators seeking the governorship in this period all won at least 80 percent in their primaries: Sens. Sam Brownback of Kansas (2010), Jon Corzine of New Jersey (2005), Dirk Kempthorne of Idaho (1998) and Pete Wilson of California (1990).

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

OK, after an action-packed night of Republican primaries, we’re calling it a night on here! It was a good night for embattled incumbents, establishment-backed pragmatists and supporters of Israel. Here’s a rundown of who won all the major Indiana races:

- Sen. Mike Braun walked into the Republican primary for governor as the favorite, and he walked away with the victory, despite his opponents’ strong fundraising and attacks against him. The truth is, though, there weren’t huge differences between the candidates on most issues.

- The closest race of the night was the GOP primary for Indiana’s 3rd District. ABC News is not yet reporting a projection in that race, but other outlets (such as the AP) have called it for former Rep. Marlin Stutzman. The conservative hardliner beat out several other candidates, including more moderate former Judge Wendy Davis and businessman Tim Smith.

- The one incumbent under threat tonight was Republican Rep. Victoria Spartz in the 5th District, but Spartz held off state Rep. Chuck Goodrich in her primary. Spartz had waffled on whether she’d run for reelection, having originally said in February 2023 that she wouldn’t seek another term. But this past February, she decided just before the filing deadline to run again, and she overcame Goodrich’s sizable financial edge to win renomination.

- In Indiana’s 6th District, wealthy storage company owner Jefferson Shreve outpaced a crowded Republican field. Aided by millions in self-funding and residual name ID from his recent and expensive run for Mayor of Indianapolis, the moderate Shreve outpaced more conservative candidates Mike Speedy and Jamison Carrier. He’ll be a shoo-in in the fall to replace retiring GOP Rep. Greg Pence.

- State Sen. Mark Messmer won a comfortable victory over a crowded GOP field in Indiana’s 8th District. The race attracted some national attention because a pro-Israel super PAC pumped seven figures into defeating another GOP candidate, former Rep. John Hostettler, who often voted against aid to Israel when he represented the area in the 1990s and 2000s. Messmer ultimately outpaced Hostettler by 20 percentage points and will be heavily favored in the general election this fall.

—Monica Potts, Nathaniel Rakich and Geoffrey Skelley, 538, and Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

CORRECTION (May 8, 2024, 11:12 a.m.): A previous version of this blog entry misidentified Indiana 6th District Republican primary candidate Jamison Carrier as Jamison Crowder.