Indiana primaries 2024: Spartz survives, big spenders prevail
538 tracked several establishment-versus-insurgent GOP primaries.
Tuesday saw the resolution of several major Republican primaries in Indiana: Voters selected the men who will likely become the state’s next U.S. senator and governor, and three open U.S. House seats were the canvas for fierce primary battles between the establishment and populist wings of the GOP. A maverick Republican incumbent also successfully defended her seat after waffling over her decision to seek reelection.
538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
- ABC News reports Jefferson Shreve is projected to win the nomination in the 6th District
- The AP made a call in Indiana’s 3rd
- Spartz projected to win renomination in 5th District, ABC News reports
- ABC News is now reporting that Mark Messmer is projected to win the 8th District GOP primary
- ABC News is now reporting that Braun is projected to win the GOP gubernatorial primary
Associated Press projects Braun the winner in GOP gubernatorial primary
The AP has projected the Republican primary in the Indiana governor’s race for Braun, who will likely win the general election in November. ABC News is not reporting a projection in the race yet, but Braun is ahead with 38 percent of the vote with about 15 percent of the expected vote reporting.
—Monica Potts, 538
Shreve’s support is both deep and broad
Yeah, Jacob, and according to The New York Times’s map of the results in Indiana’s 6th, Shreve is doing quite well in the district’s non-Indianapolis counties. That’s a good sign for Shreve and a bad sign for Carrier because Shreve is from Indianapolis, while Carrier is not; if Carrier is going to win, he probably needs to do better in those counties. Furthermore, Shreve is doing much better in those counties than his Indianapolis neighbor, Speedy. We don’t yet know how Indianapolis’s Marion County voted, but Speedy will need to have crushed it there if he is going to overcome Shreve’s advantage in the outlying counties.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
Polls are now closed everywhere in Indiana
Most of Indiana's polls closed at 6 p.m. Eastern, but two parts of the state are in the Central Time Zone and just had their polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern: the northwestern corner of the state (Chicago metro/areas around Gary) and the southwestern corner (Evansville).
—Geoffrey Skelley, 538
Early returns in the 6th District
We’ve gotten a trickle of votes counted in the 6th District, which includes suburbs and rural areas east of Indianapolis. With 15 percent of the expected vote reporting, Jefferson Shreve, who has dipped into his considerable pockets to self fund a bid to the tune of $4.5 million is ahead with 30 percent, while car dealership consultant Jamison Carrier is in second with 24 percent.
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections
That’s a wrap!
OK, after an action-packed night of Republican primaries, we’re calling it a night on here! It was a good night for embattled incumbents, establishment-backed pragmatists and supporters of Israel. Here’s a rundown of who won all the major Indiana races:
- Sen. Mike Braun walked into the Republican primary for governor as the favorite, and he walked away with the victory, despite his opponents’ strong fundraising and attacks against him. The truth is, though, there weren’t huge differences between the candidates on most issues.
- The closest race of the night was the GOP primary for Indiana’s 3rd District. ABC News is not yet reporting a projection in that race, but other outlets (such as the AP) have called it for former Rep. Marlin Stutzman. The conservative hardliner beat out several other candidates, including more moderate former Judge Wendy Davis and businessman Tim Smith.
- The one incumbent under threat tonight was Republican Rep. Victoria Spartz in the 5th District, but Spartz held off state Rep. Chuck Goodrich in her primary. Spartz had waffled on whether she’d run for reelection, having originally said in February 2023 that she wouldn’t seek another term. But this past February, she decided just before the filing deadline to run again, and she overcame Goodrich’s sizable financial edge to win renomination.
- In Indiana’s 6th District, wealthy storage company owner Jefferson Shreve outpaced a crowded Republican field. Aided by millions in self-funding and residual name ID from his recent and expensive run for Mayor of Indianapolis, the moderate Shreve outpaced more conservative candidates Mike Speedy and Jamison Carrier. He’ll be a shoo-in in the fall to replace retiring GOP Rep. Greg Pence.
- State Sen. Mark Messmer won a comfortable victory over a crowded GOP field in Indiana’s 8th District. The race attracted some national attention because a pro-Israel super PAC pumped seven figures into defeating another GOP candidate, former Rep. John Hostettler, who often voted against aid to Israel when he represented the area in the 1990s and 2000s. Messmer ultimately outpaced Hostettler by 20 percentage points and will be heavily favored in the general election this fall.
—Monica Potts, Nathaniel Rakich and Geoffrey Skelley, 538, and Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections
CORRECTION (May 8, 2024, 11:12 a.m.): A previous version of this blog entry misidentified Indiana 6th District Republican primary candidate Jamison Carrier as Jamison Crowder.