Indiana primaries 2024: Spartz survives, big spenders prevail

538 tracked several establishment-versus-insurgent GOP primaries.

Tuesday saw the resolution of several major Republican primaries in Indiana: Voters selected the men who will likely become the state’s next U.S. senator and governor, and three open U.S. House seats were the canvas for fierce primary battles between the establishment and populist wings of the GOP. A maverick Republican incumbent also successfully defended her seat after waffling over her decision to seek reelection.

538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


0

Any final thoughts?

With most of today’s primaries now projected, we’re going to sign off soon. But first: What were everyone’s takeaways from the night?

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


The AP made a call in Indiana’s 3rd

While ABC News is not yet reporting a projection in the tight race for the GOP nomination in Indiana’s 3rd District, the AP has made a call: They are saying that Stutzman will be the winner. That would make the 3rd District today’s only win for the insurgent wing of the Republican Party: Stutzman was an OG tea partier who helped force out former Speaker John Boehner in 2014.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


Checking in on anti-abortion candidates

Shreve’s projected win in the 6th Congressional District is another win for anti-abortion candidates. Shreve’s website describes him as a pro-life Catholic who would work to protect the unborn. That said, he sang a different tune when he ran for Indianapolis mayor last year, saying that mayors aren’t charged with making abortion policy. Of course, Indianapolis is much more Democratic than the rest of this solid red state, and Shreve will have a chance to weigh in on national abortion policy if he is sent to Congress in November. His win means that Republicans could be sending at least five anti-abortion representatives to the House next year, in addition to Banks, their likely new senator.

—Monica Potts, 538


Answer: Bloody 2nds all over

Daily Kos Elections quote-tweeted their own tweet with the 10 districts with the lowest cumulative electoral margins between 2012 and 2020. Another 2nd District, this one in Nebraska, tops the list with a total of 12.7 points! Republican Rep. Don Bacon is up for reelection there in what looks to be a competitive race this November.

—Irena Li, 538


That’s a wrap!

OK, after an action-packed night of Republican primaries, we’re calling it a night on here! It was a good night for embattled incumbents, establishment-backed pragmatists and supporters of Israel. Here’s a rundown of who won all the major Indiana races:

- Sen. Mike Braun walked into the Republican primary for governor as the favorite, and he walked away with the victory, despite his opponents’ strong fundraising and attacks against him. The truth is, though, there weren’t huge differences between the candidates on most issues.

- The closest race of the night was the GOP primary for Indiana’s 3rd District. ABC News is not yet reporting a projection in that race, but other outlets (such as the AP) have called it for former Rep. Marlin Stutzman. The conservative hardliner beat out several other candidates, including more moderate former Judge Wendy Davis and businessman Tim Smith.

- The one incumbent under threat tonight was Republican Rep. Victoria Spartz in the 5th District, but Spartz held off state Rep. Chuck Goodrich in her primary. Spartz had waffled on whether she’d run for reelection, having originally said in February 2023 that she wouldn’t seek another term. But this past February, she decided just before the filing deadline to run again, and she overcame Goodrich’s sizable financial edge to win renomination.

- In Indiana’s 6th District, wealthy storage company owner Jefferson Shreve outpaced a crowded Republican field. Aided by millions in self-funding and residual name ID from his recent and expensive run for Mayor of Indianapolis, the moderate Shreve outpaced more conservative candidates Mike Speedy and Jamison Carrier. He’ll be a shoo-in in the fall to replace retiring GOP Rep. Greg Pence.

- State Sen. Mark Messmer won a comfortable victory over a crowded GOP field in Indiana’s 8th District. The race attracted some national attention because a pro-Israel super PAC pumped seven figures into defeating another GOP candidate, former Rep. John Hostettler, who often voted against aid to Israel when he represented the area in the 1990s and 2000s. Messmer ultimately outpaced Hostettler by 20 percentage points and will be heavily favored in the general election this fall.

—Monica Potts, Nathaniel Rakich and Geoffrey Skelley, 538, and Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

CORRECTION (May 8, 2024, 11:12 a.m.): A previous version of this blog entry misidentified Indiana 6th District Republican primary candidate Jamison Carrier as Jamison Crowder.