Indiana primaries 2024: Spartz survives, big spenders prevail

538 tracked several establishment-versus-insurgent GOP primaries.

Tuesday saw the resolution of several major Republican primaries in Indiana: Voters selected the men who will likely become the state’s next U.S. senator and governor, and three open U.S. House seats were the canvas for fierce primary battles between the establishment and populist wings of the GOP. A maverick Republican incumbent also successfully defended her seat after waffling over her decision to seek reelection.

538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


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Candidates of color to watch in Indiana

Tonight, we'll be monitoring how candidates of color perform in primaries for governor, U.S. Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives. Overall, 11 people of color are running in these contests — six Republicans and five Democrats.

The most likely primary winner is Democratic Rep. André Carson, who is Indiana's lone Black representative on Capitol Hill (and was also only the second Muslim ever elected to Congress). Democrats in the solidly blue 7th District look set to renominate him against two little-known Black Democrats.

In the dark-red 4th District, insurance executive Rimpi Girn is an Indian immigrant who has raised at least a little money, so she may be the favorite for the Democratic nomination — but a November defeat against GOP Rep. Jim Baird is a near-certainty.

In the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, clinical psychologist Valerie McCray is running a long-shot race to become the state's first Black U.S. senator. She ran for the state's 2022 Senate contest but failed to make the ballot and briefly ran for president in 2020. However, she's raised only $14,800, less than the $112,000 former state Rep. Marc Carmichael has brought in. Still, either Democrat will be a huge underdog against Rep. Jim Banks in the general election.

It's less clear if any candidate of color has a shot at winning a GOP primary. On paper, the contender with the best chance might be "Honest Gabe" Whitley, who has raised $364,000 in the solidly Democratic 7th District, making him the only Republican in that race to have reported raising anything. But Whitley is a lightning rod of controversy: Among other things, he faces accusations of concocting false donors and a fictional veterans organization to back his candidacy.

In the 5th District, speech-language pathologist and business owner Raju Chinthala is running, but he's unlikely to finish ahead of the incumbent Spartz or her leading challenger, Goodrich. Two Republican Latino candidates are running in the 1st District — Mark Levya and Ben Ruiz — but Lake County Councilmember Randy Niemeyer is the party's preferred candidate to take on Democratic Rep. Frank Mrvan.

Lastly, the best-known Republican on this list is Curtis Hill, who is making a long-shot bid for governor. Hill lost renomination for state attorney general in 2020 after allegations came out that he had groped a group of women at a party.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538


Tracking anti-abortion candidates in Indiana

Tonight we'll be tracking how anti-abortion candidates fare in Indiana's Senate, House and gubernatorial races.

Of the state's nine congressional seats, four have crowded Republican primary fields. Multiple Republican candidates in those races fall under our definition of being anti-abortion, as do four of the six Republicans running for for governor and Banks, the sole Republican candidate for Senate.

Indiana's Republican-led legislature passed a near-total abortion ban in 2022, and polls showed such an extreme ban was unpopular; Indiana voters are broadly supportive of abortion rights. But the state's Republicans didn't pay an electoral price for enacting the ban in the November 2022 elections, so we'll see how these candidates fare tonight and in November.

—Monica Potts, 538


Why you shouldn't read into early voting numbers

We're starting to see the first results trickle in in Indiana, but you just have to look at another Indiana election to see why you shouldn't overreact when only 1 percent of the vote is reporting ...

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


Israel policy has inspired heavy spending in the 8th District

Another ex-congressman may make a comeback in southwestern Indiana's 8th District — once one of the most competitive seats in the country but now a reliably Republican seat. The two front-runners in the GOP primary here appear to be state Sen. Mark Messmer and former Rep. John Hostettler. Establishment and tea party Republican groups have invested heavily in this race: America Leads Action has spent $1.6 million to help Messmer and hurt Hostettler, and Protect Freedom PAC is airing ads for Hostettler.

But the main divide in this race seems to be less about governing philosophy and more about foreign policy. For instance, Protect Freedom PAC — which represents former Rep. Ron Paul's libertarian wing of the party — may be with Hostettler because he and Paul were two of only six Republicans who opposed the Iraq war back in 2002. And Hostettler's record on Israel has provoked strong opposition from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee and Republican Jewish Coalition. Citing anti-Israel votes Hostettler took in Congress as well as a book he wrote that blamed the Iraq war on Jewish Americans' efforts to help Israel, these two groups have dropped $2.2 million to attack Hostettler or boost Messmer.

In total, pro-Messmer, anti-Hostettler outside groups have outspent pro-Hostettler, anti-Messmer groups by a whopping $5.1 million to $793,000. (And it's not like Hostettler himself has been able to fight back; Messmer has outraised him $763,000 to $41,000.)

Don't write off two other candidates, either. Surgeon Richard Moss, who has pledged to join the Freedom Caucus, has raised $556,000, while 28-year-old Army reservist Dominick Kavanaugh took in $528,000. That said, given the financial disparity, any candidate other than Messmer has to be considered an underdog.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


That’s a wrap!

OK, after an action-packed night of Republican primaries, we’re calling it a night on here! It was a good night for embattled incumbents, establishment-backed pragmatists and supporters of Israel. Here’s a rundown of who won all the major Indiana races:

- Sen. Mike Braun walked into the Republican primary for governor as the favorite, and he walked away with the victory, despite his opponents’ strong fundraising and attacks against him. The truth is, though, there weren’t huge differences between the candidates on most issues.

- The closest race of the night was the GOP primary for Indiana’s 3rd District. ABC News is not yet reporting a projection in that race, but other outlets (such as the AP) have called it for former Rep. Marlin Stutzman. The conservative hardliner beat out several other candidates, including more moderate former Judge Wendy Davis and businessman Tim Smith.

- The one incumbent under threat tonight was Republican Rep. Victoria Spartz in the 5th District, but Spartz held off state Rep. Chuck Goodrich in her primary. Spartz had waffled on whether she’d run for reelection, having originally said in February 2023 that she wouldn’t seek another term. But this past February, she decided just before the filing deadline to run again, and she overcame Goodrich’s sizable financial edge to win renomination.

- In Indiana’s 6th District, wealthy storage company owner Jefferson Shreve outpaced a crowded Republican field. Aided by millions in self-funding and residual name ID from his recent and expensive run for Mayor of Indianapolis, the moderate Shreve outpaced more conservative candidates Mike Speedy and Jamison Carrier. He’ll be a shoo-in in the fall to replace retiring GOP Rep. Greg Pence.

- State Sen. Mark Messmer won a comfortable victory over a crowded GOP field in Indiana’s 8th District. The race attracted some national attention because a pro-Israel super PAC pumped seven figures into defeating another GOP candidate, former Rep. John Hostettler, who often voted against aid to Israel when he represented the area in the 1990s and 2000s. Messmer ultimately outpaced Hostettler by 20 percentage points and will be heavily favored in the general election this fall.

—Monica Potts, Nathaniel Rakich and Geoffrey Skelley, 538, and Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

CORRECTION (May 8, 2024, 11:12 a.m.): A previous version of this blog entry misidentified Indiana 6th District Republican primary candidate Jamison Carrier as Jamison Crowder.