Indiana primaries 2024: Spartz survives, big spenders prevail

538 tracked several establishment-versus-insurgent GOP primaries.

Tuesday saw the resolution of several major Republican primaries in Indiana: Voters selected the men who will likely become the state’s next U.S. senator and governor, and three open U.S. House seats were the canvas for fierce primary battles between the establishment and populist wings of the GOP. A maverick Republican incumbent also successfully defended her seat after waffling over her decision to seek reelection.

538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


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Indiana governor will likely come down to two party-switchers

While it’s well known that McCormick used to be a Republican before switching parties in 2021, it’s perhaps less well known that Braun also used to be registered with the opposite party.

Braun was registered as a Democrat until the 2012 cycle, perhaps a surprise for a politician ranked among the most conservative in the Senate based on DW-NOMINATE. In 2018, when he ran for Senate, he told CNN that he was only registered as a Democrat in order to vote in local primary elections and that he has always identified as a Republican regardless of his registration status.

In any case, at least according to the official records, the governor’s race in Indiana looks like it will be between two party-switchers, perhaps emblematic of the upheaval in partisan alignment we’ve seen across the nation in the last decade.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538


Checking in on anti-abortion candidates

As I mentioned earlier, the Republican races throughout the state are crowded with anti-abortion candidates. Checking in with the early results, it looks like ABC is reporting that one incumbent on the list, Baird in the 4th District, is projected to win. ABC News is also reporting that Houchin, who currently represents the 9th District, is projected to win in her primary and will go on to seek reelection in November.

—Monica Potts, 538


Messmer leads former Rep. Hostettler in race that attracted lots of outside money

We’ve got a few votes counted in the 8th District as well (8 percent of the expected vote, to be precise), which sits in the southwestern corner of the state. This seat attracted a fair bit of outside spending, both in support of Mark Messmer, the state senator currently leading the bunch, and against former Rep. John Hostettler, who represented a predecessor district in the 1990s and 2000s. The race was notable in that it represented the first time AIPAC’s affiliated super PAC, United Democracy Project, got involved in a Republican primary. Previously, it had only spent in Democratic primaries.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections


First results in the 3rd District

With 12 percent of the expected vote reporting in the Republican primary for the 3rd District, Zay is at 29 percent, Stutzman is at 21 percent, Davis is at 18 percent and Smith is at 17 percent. However, Zay’s lead is likely due to the fact that Huntington County, where a lot of the reported votes are coming from, is in his state Senate district. The Associated Press has results from more counties, including populous Allen County, and currently has a different result: Stutzman 23 percent, Davis 22 percent, Smith 21 percent and Zay 19 percent.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


Will an incumbent lose in Indiana’s 5th District?

As Meredith alluded to, the GOP primary in the 5th District is competitive today after Spartz decided to seek reelection, but only after a Hamlet rendition of "to run or not to run."

In February 2023, Spartz surprised the political world by announcing that not only would she not run for Indiana's open Senate seat, she also wouldn't seek reelection. She then repeatedly flip-flopped on whether she might reconsider her decision before announcing in February that she would indeed seek reelection, just days before the filing deadline. Spartz's decision upset the plans of the many GOP contenders who'd entered the race in the meantime — 11 candidates (including Spartz) are on the primary ballot.

However, state Rep. Chuck Goodrich looks like a real threat to Spartz. The CEO of an electrical contracting company, Goodrich has self-funded heavily — $4.6 million of the $5.5 million he'd raised as of April 17 — to give himself a significant financial advantage over Spartz, who had only raised $581,000 after barely fundraising throughout 2023. Even with the money she already had in the bank, Spartz has been outspent $4.1 million to $2 million by Goodrich.

Goodrich has emphasized his America First views and attacked Spartz, most notably by casting her as overly supportive of Ukraine in its war against Russia. Spartz is Ukrainian American, and Goodrich has claimed she's been "putting Ukraine first" while using an image of Spartz with Biden after the passage of Ukraine military aid in 2022. However, Spartz's record is more nuanced: She has been critical of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and opposed the most recent round of Ukraine aid that Congress passed in April.

Yet Goodrich's attacks may be working: A late March poll for his campaign by pollster Mark It Red found him almost running even with her, trailing just 33 percent to 30 percent — a change from earlier polls that gave the incumbent a larger lead.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538