I’ve never visited Virginia, but I know about the 2nd District! I agree with Jacob here.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

There's just one more primary that we're still watching tonight, but it's a barnburner. We're up to 92 percent of the expected vote counted in the Republican primary for Indiana's 3rd District, and Stutzman is up to 24 percent of the vote, with Smith at 22 percent, Davis at 19 percent and Zay at 17 percent. Smith now trails Stutzman by 1,236 votes.

According to the AP, there are still several thousand votes left to be counted in Allen County, where Smith is currently leading. But can he net 1,236 votes there? I don't know …

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Since 2016, New Mexico's 2nd District has changed hands in every election. Republican Steve Pearce held the district in 2003-2009 and 2011-2019, leaving in the 2008 and 2018 cycles to mount (unsuccessful) bids for Senate and governor, respectively. When he left in 2008, Democrat Harry Teague won the seat, only to lose to Pearce when he returned.

According to Daily Kos Elections, Biden won the current configuration of the seat by 6 points in 2020, but in 2022 Democrat Gabe Vasquez beat incumbent Republican Yvette Herrell by less than 1 point. The seat is about 60 percent Hispanic, and as we've seen change in the Hispanic vote in the last few years, I expect it to remain competitive in the coming cycles.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

My vote might be for Virginia's 2nd District, which is anchored by Virginia Beach. It's been held by seven different members over the past 20 years: five Republicans and two Democrats. Four of those members lost their reelection bids, and the current officeholder, Rep. Jen Kiggans, faces a challenging reelection this fall.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

As Meredith alluded to, the GOP primary in the 5th District is competitive today after Spartz decided to seek reelection, but only after a Hamlet rendition of "to run or not to run."

In February 2023, Spartz surprised the political world by announcing that not only would she not run for Indiana's open Senate seat, she also wouldn't seek reelection. She then repeatedly flip-flopped on whether she might reconsider her decision before announcing in February that she would indeed seek reelection, just days before the filing deadline. Spartz's decision upset the plans of the many GOP contenders who'd entered the race in the meantime — 11 candidates (including Spartz) are on the primary ballot.

However, state Rep. Chuck Goodrich looks like a real threat to Spartz. The CEO of an electrical contracting company, Goodrich has self-funded heavily — $4.6 million of the $5.5 million he'd raised as of April 17 — to give himself a significant financial advantage over Spartz, who had only raised $581,000 after barely fundraising throughout 2023. Even with the money she already had in the bank, Spartz has been outspent $4.1 million to $2 million by Goodrich.

Goodrich has emphasized his America First views and attacked Spartz, most notably by casting her as overly supportive of Ukraine in its war against Russia. Spartz is Ukrainian American, and Goodrich has claimed she's been "putting Ukraine first" while using an image of Spartz with Biden after the passage of Ukraine military aid in 2022. However, Spartz's record is more nuanced: She has been critical of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and opposed the most recent round of Ukraine aid that Congress passed in April.

Yet Goodrich's attacks may be working: A late March poll for his campaign by pollster Mark It Red found him almost running even with her, trailing just 33 percent to 30 percent — a change from earlier polls that gave the incumbent a larger lead.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538