Based on preliminary, early entrance poll data, Trump has a "strong lead," based on ABC News's early characterization of the race. This is not a projection, but suggests the former president has an edge, as was expected.

It's no surprise that given Iowa's prominent position in the presidential primary lineup, it has so far attracted a disproportionate amount of TV ad spending in the GOP primary. There's been about $124 million spent on TV ads in Iowa by Republicans, according to tracking firm AdImpact. That's a little less than half of all the money spent by Republicans in the election nationwide ($271 million). The top spender in Iowa is Stand For America, the super PAC supporting Nikki Haley — they've spent $31 million, and much of that money has come late in the game. Three DeSantis-supporting groups combine for $32 million, while Trump's super PAC has spent just $11 million on ads (not bad for a guy up more than 30 points in the polls). Candidates get more favorable ad rates than super PACs, and among the active candidates themselves, Trump is the top Iowa spender at $7 million, followed by Haley at $4.9 million. DeSantis himself actually spent comparatively little in the Hawkeye State: just $3 million. For perspective, that's less than no-name self-funding candidate Ryan Binkley has spent on TV in the state.

Twenty-eight percent of likely Iowa Republican voters said that the endorsement of Haley by Koch-backed Americans for Prosperity made them less likely to vote for her, compared with 10 percent who said the endorsement made them more likely to vote for her, according to a mid-December survey from Emerson College. The remaining 62 percent said the endorsement made no difference.

In a mid-December survey from Emerson College, 60 percent of likely GOP caucusgoers in Iowa said that Gov. Kim Reynolds's endorsement of DeSantis did not make a difference to their vote. Seventeen percent said it made them more likely to vote for DeSantis, but 24 percent said it made them less likely to vote for him.

Tonight’s Iowa caucuses didn’t hold many surprises. Trump was expected to win by a huge margin, and he did. DeSantis and Haley were expected to duke it out for second place, and they did. You could argue that DeSantis outpacing Haley was a bit of a surprise, given all the dooming around DeSantis’s campaign and Haley’s late momentum in the polls, but I don’t think the “Haley’s-in-second” conventional wisdom had really sunk in yet, so neither of those results felt out of place.

I will say, though, this wasn’t the best combination of events for Haley. She finished third, so she probably won’t get a huge boost leading into New Hampshire, a must-win state for her. And Ramaswamy’s withdrawal from the race could actually help Trump gain some ground there in the next few days. Trump was already very likely to win the nomination, but it’s really over if he wins New Hampshire — and that probably just got a little more likely.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538