Iowa caucuses 2024: Trump projected to win, DeSantis 2nd

Haley finishes 3rd, Ramaswamy drops out after finishing 4th.

The first election of the 2024 presidential primaries is in the books, and former President Donald Trump was the big winner. ABC News projects that Trump finished first in the Iowa caucuses, about 30 percentage points ahead of second-place finisher Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley is projected to finish third, while businessman Vivek Ramaswamy is projected to finish fourth. As a result, Ramaswamy has dropped out of the presidential race.

Throughout the night, 538 reporters broke down the results in Iowa in real time with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.


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Iowa Republicans do not care about the criminal charges against Trump

I wrote earlier that pre-caucus polling showed that Iowa Republicans didn't care about Trump's legal problems. ABC's Iowa entrance polls support that. Sixty-three percent of caucusgoers said Trump would be fit for office even if he were convicted. Seventy-one percent of that group voted for him. So to Julia's earlier question, I think part of the issue, as she noted, is that while there are some anti-Trump Republicans who want an alternative, a majority of Republicans left in the party don't think Trump did anything wrong, or that even if he did, he's not disqualified from future office.
—Monica Potts, 538


Binkley or Burgum?

Tell that to North Dakota Gov. (and billionaire) Doug Burgum, Jacob …

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


Binkley’s millions

Nathaniel, Binkley spent good money for his 1 percent! Just over $3 million, according to AdImpact. I’m not sure what the cost per vote record is in Iowa, but I think he’s probably a contender. Maybe if he had spent $300 million he would have won in a landslide …
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections


Who the heck is Ryan Binkley?

After Trump, DeSantis, Haley and Ramaswamy, the current fifth-place candidate in Iowa is not Asa Hutchinson, the former governor of the great state of Arkansas, but businessman and pastor Ryan Binkley, whom we at 538 don’t consider a major candidate. I actually interviewed Binkley last year as part of a video on what keeps long- or no-shot presidential candidates going.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538


Final thoughts: As good as it gets?

Other than his one-vote loss in Johnson County, it's hard to find much that went wrong for Trump tonight. He won a majority of the vote and carried pretty much every demographic category (especially ones that make up the bedrock of the GOP primary electorate). The most Trump-like candidate in the race, who was still siphoning off a chunk of MAGA votes, dropped out and endorsed him. His two main challengers effectively tied, denying either of them the momentum or comeback narrative they desperately sought in Iowa. And you have to imagine the deep-pocketed donors who flooded Iowa with tens of millions of dollars of pro-Haley and pro-DeSantis advertising have to be wondering about their return on investment.

The New Hampshire primary is in eight days and might well be the toughest contest for Trump of the entire primary process, so it's good for him he can approach it with a full head of steam. The window of opportunity for any non-Trump candidate to alter the course of this race, such that it was ever open, is rapidly closing.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections