Iowa caucuses 2024: Trump projected to win, DeSantis 2nd
Haley finishes 3rd, Ramaswamy drops out after finishing 4th.
The first election of the 2024 presidential primaries is in the books, and former President Donald Trump was the big winner. ABC News projects that Trump finished first in the Iowa caucuses, about 30 percentage points ahead of second-place finisher Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley is projected to finish third, while businessman Vivek Ramaswamy is projected to finish fourth. As a result, Ramaswamy has dropped out of the presidential race.
Throughout the night, 538 reporters broke down the results in Iowa in real time with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
Late movement toward Haley in the polls didn’t show up in the caucuses
According to the most recent Iowa polls, Haley was surging in the state, taking second place over DeSantis as of January 11, and increasing her lead over him since then. However, it doesn't appear that this surge in the polls showed up in the actual caucuses, as ABC News has now projected Ron DeSantis to finish in second place. As we wrote in 2016 and 2020, Iowa can be a difficult state to poll because the nature of the caucuses lends itself to voters making strategic decisions that may not be captured in the polls. Unless the race is essentially between two candidates, Iowa polls have historically been all over the map in terms of their accuracy. The fact that the polls got so close this time is, historically, unusual.
—Mary Radcliffe, 538
DeSantis projected to finish second
ABC News can now project that DeSantis will finish second in the Iowa caucuses. It was really by the skin of his teeth, though, with 21 percent to Haley's 19 percent. It was the absolute bare minimum performance DeSantis needed to keep his campaign alive.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
Trump addresses supporters in Iowa
Trump gave a victory speech to supporters in Iowa at about 10:30 p.m., and spent an uncharacteristically long time talking about other people. He thanked his supporters, his family, and even his opponents. It took several minutes for him to pivot to his target for the night: Biden, and, in doing so, he picked up the mantle of presumptive nominee.
Here, he listed some of the themes of his campaign, immigration and increasing energy production. He borrowed a phrase from former vice presidential candidate and Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and said, "Drill, baby, drill." (He even made a joke about electric vehicles.) In talking about immigration he repeated a number of falsehoods about a border that's out of control and immigrants coming in from "insane asylums," echoing some of the themes from his 2016 campaign launch.
In truth, Biden has ramped up deportations, deporting more families and children than Trump did in his last year in office. But border crossings have surged regardless, Republican voters care a lot about immigration, and voters trust Republicans more on the issue. In a reversal of 2020, Trump is poised to be a challenger instead of an incumbent president in this round, and he's already throwing punches.
—Monica Potts, 538
Ramaswamy will drop out of the race
Our colleagues at ABC News are reporting that Ramaswamy will drop out of the race momentarily. Bloomberg News's Jennifer Jacobs further reports that he is going to endorse Trump in his concession speech.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538
Iowa, reader’s digest version
There were a lot of moving parts tonight, so here's a quick summary all in one place:
- Trump is projected to finish first; he currently has 51 percent of the vote.
- DeSantis is projected to finish second; he currently has 21 percent.
- Haley is projected to finish third; she currently has 19 percent.
- Ramaswamy is projected to finish fourth; he is dropping out of the race.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538