Iowa caucuses 2024: Trump projected to win, DeSantis 2nd
Haley finishes 3rd, Ramaswamy drops out after finishing 4th.
The first election of the 2024 presidential primaries is in the books, and former President Donald Trump was the big winner. ABC News projects that Trump finished first in the Iowa caucuses, about 30 percentage points ahead of second-place finisher Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley is projected to finish third, while businessman Vivek Ramaswamy is projected to finish fourth. As a result, Ramaswamy has dropped out of the presidential race.
Throughout the night, 538 reporters broke down the results in Iowa in real time with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.
Latest headlines:
Early characterization: Trump has a strong lead
Based on preliminary, early entrance poll data, Trump has a "strong lead," based on ABC News's early characterization of the race. This is not a projection, but suggests the former president has an edge, as was expected.
The advertising landscape
It's no surprise that given Iowa's prominent position in the presidential primary lineup, it has so far attracted a disproportionate amount of TV ad spending in the GOP primary. There's been about $124 million spent on TV ads in Iowa by Republicans, according to tracking firm AdImpact. That's a little less than half of all the money spent by Republicans in the election nationwide ($271 million). The top spender in Iowa is Stand For America, the super PAC supporting Nikki Haley — they've spent $31 million, and much of that money has come late in the game. Three DeSantis-supporting groups combine for $32 million, while Trump's super PAC has spent just $11 million on ads (not bad for a guy up more than 30 points in the polls). Candidates get more favorable ad rates than super PACs, and among the active candidates themselves, Trump is the top Iowa spender at $7 million, followed by Haley at $4.9 million. DeSantis himself actually spent comparatively little in the Hawkeye State: just $3 million. For perspective, that's less than no-name self-funding candidate Ryan Binkley has spent on TV in the state.
The Koch endorsement may have backfired for Haley
Twenty-eight percent of likely Iowa Republican voters said that the endorsement of Haley by Koch-backed Americans for Prosperity made them less likely to vote for her, compared with 10 percent who said the endorsement made them more likely to vote for her, according to a mid-December survey from Emerson College. The remaining 62 percent said the endorsement made no difference.
Reynolds’s endorsement of DeSantis may not have helped him
In a mid-December survey from Emerson College, 60 percent of likely GOP caucusgoers in Iowa said that Gov. Kim Reynolds's endorsement of DeSantis did not make a difference to their vote. Seventeen percent said it made them more likely to vote for DeSantis, but 24 percent said it made them less likely to vote for him.
Iowa, reader’s digest version
There were a lot of moving parts tonight, so here's a quick summary all in one place:
- Trump is projected to finish first; he currently has 51 percent of the vote.
- DeSantis is projected to finish second; he currently has 21 percent.
- Haley is projected to finish third; she currently has 19 percent.
- Ramaswamy is projected to finish fourth; he is dropping out of the race.
—Nathaniel Rakich, 538