Both Haley, who is projected to win third place, and DeSantis, projected to win second, have given very optimistic-sounding speeches. These outcomes have been highly spun in terms of expectations and disadvantages relative to the Trump campaign. As I noted at the beginning of the night, it's not all that typical for major candidates to drop out after Iowa — most stay in to fight in New Hampshire, at least. And that seems to be the case tonight for both Haley and DeSantis, who sought to show the election outcome in the best possible light. But, like a number of long-shot candidates before him, Ramaswamy will end his campaign tonight.

—Julia Azari, 538 contributor

There were a lot of moving parts tonight, so here's a quick summary all in one place:

- Trump is projected to finish first; he currently has 51 percent of the vote.
- DeSantis is projected to finish second; he currently has 21 percent.
- Haley is projected to finish third; she currently has 19 percent.
- Ramaswamy is projected to finish fourth; he is dropping out of the race.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

In her speech tonight, Haley linked Biden to Trump, reminding us that both are old (she said both are about 80 years old), and that most Americans don't want another Trump-Biden match up. But Republicans are much less likely than Democrats to admit their candidate is too old, so the audience within her party for that message is small.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

Johnson County, one of the most diverse, well-educated counties in Iowa, now shows Nikki Haley in the lead … by 1 vote, according to ABC News.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

Trump gave a victory speech to supporters in Iowa at about 10:30 p.m., and spent an uncharacteristically long time talking about other people. He thanked his supporters, his family, and even his opponents. It took several minutes for him to pivot to his target for the night: Biden, and, in doing so, he picked up the mantle of presumptive nominee.

Here, he listed some of the themes of his campaign, immigration and increasing energy production. He borrowed a phrase from former vice presidential candidate and Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and said, "Drill, baby, drill." (He even made a joke about electric vehicles.) In talking about immigration he repeated a number of falsehoods about a border that's out of control and immigrants coming in from "insane asylums," echoing some of the themes from his 2016 campaign launch.

In truth, Biden has ramped up deportations, deporting more families and children than Trump did in his last year in office. But border crossings have surged regardless, Republican voters care a lot about immigration, and voters trust Republicans more on the issue. In a reversal of 2020, Trump is poised to be a challenger instead of an incumbent president in this round, and he's already throwing punches.
—Monica Potts, 538