I wrote earlier that pre-caucus polling showed that Iowa Republicans didn't care about Trump's legal problems. ABC's Iowa entrance polls support that. Sixty-three percent of caucusgoers said Trump would be fit for office even if he were convicted. Seventy-one percent of that group voted for him. So to Julia's earlier question, I think part of the issue, as she noted, is that while there are some anti-Trump Republicans who want an alternative, a majority of Republicans left in the party don't think Trump did anything wrong, or that even if he did, he's not disqualified from future office.
—Monica Potts, 538

Tell that to North Dakota Gov. (and billionaire) Doug Burgum, Jacob …

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Nathaniel, Binkley spent good money for his 1 percent! Just over $3 million, according to AdImpact. I’m not sure what the cost per vote record is in Iowa, but I think he’s probably a contender. Maybe if he had spent $300 million he would have won in a landslide …
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

After Trump, DeSantis, Haley and Ramaswamy, the current fifth-place candidate in Iowa is not Asa Hutchinson, the former governor of the great state of Arkansas, but businessman and pastor Ryan Binkley, whom we at 538 don’t consider a major candidate. I actually interviewed Binkley last year as part of a video on what keeps long- or no-shot presidential candidates going.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Trump gave a victory speech to supporters in Iowa at about 10:30 p.m., and spent an uncharacteristically long time talking about other people. He thanked his supporters, his family, and even his opponents. It took several minutes for him to pivot to his target for the night: Biden, and, in doing so, he picked up the mantle of presumptive nominee.

Here, he listed some of the themes of his campaign, immigration and increasing energy production. He borrowed a phrase from former vice presidential candidate and Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and said, "Drill, baby, drill." (He even made a joke about electric vehicles.) In talking about immigration he repeated a number of falsehoods about a border that's out of control and immigrants coming in from "insane asylums," echoing some of the themes from his 2016 campaign launch.

In truth, Biden has ramped up deportations, deporting more families and children than Trump did in his last year in office. But border crossings have surged regardless, Republican voters care a lot about immigration, and voters trust Republicans more on the issue. In a reversal of 2020, Trump is poised to be a challenger instead of an incumbent president in this round, and he's already throwing punches.
—Monica Potts, 538