Donald Trump came into this race an overwhelming favorite for the GOP nomination, and he leaves it the same way. DeSantis and Haley remain in a close race for second place, but so far behind Trump that it doesn’t seem like either has a realistic path to claiming the nomination. The polls were extremely accurate, especially by Iowa standards, and if that holds up in future primary elections, barring any unforeseen circumstances we’re looking at a Trump-Biden rematch in November.
—Mary Radcliffe, 538

Trump will win in nearly every county, the race was called super early, and the issues that brought Iowans out tonight were squarely in his wheelhouse, including the unsubstantiated claims that the 2020 race was stolen. This doesn't suggest there's a lot of room to mount a challenge, but DeSantis and Haley are both going to keep trying! But New Hampshire is a different animal, and that race is soon enough that narratives about Trump's dominance could crack a little. We'll be here for that one, too!

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

With results projected and speeches given, we're closing in on the end. What are everyone's closing thoughts and takeaways for the evening?

—Tia Yang, 538

Earlier tonight, Ramaswamy dropped out of the race following his fourth place Iowa finish and endorsed Trump. We've already noted how Ramaswamy was all-in in Iowa, traveling through the entire state twice. Ramaswamy had a brief moment in the sun earlier in the race, but that investment didn't really pay off. He urged his supporters to support Trump, but polls show he's already their number two choice. That could make a difference in New Hampshire, where Haley has been closing in on Trump's lead.

—Monica Potts, 538

Trump gave a victory speech to supporters in Iowa at about 10:30 p.m., and spent an uncharacteristically long time talking about other people. He thanked his supporters, his family, and even his opponents. It took several minutes for him to pivot to his target for the night: Biden, and, in doing so, he picked up the mantle of presumptive nominee.

Here, he listed some of the themes of his campaign, immigration and increasing energy production. He borrowed a phrase from former vice presidential candidate and Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and said, "Drill, baby, drill." (He even made a joke about electric vehicles.) In talking about immigration he repeated a number of falsehoods about a border that's out of control and immigrants coming in from "insane asylums," echoing some of the themes from his 2016 campaign launch.

In truth, Biden has ramped up deportations, deporting more families and children than Trump did in his last year in office. But border crossings have surged regardless, Republican voters care a lot about immigration, and voters trust Republicans more on the issue. In a reversal of 2020, Trump is poised to be a challenger instead of an incumbent president in this round, and he's already throwing punches.
—Monica Potts, 538