The DeSantis campaign is already zeroing in on early calls from all of the TV networks and the AP to blame for their candidate’s performance, calling it “election interference” because parts of the state hadn’t even begun caucusing when the calls came in. We know Republican voters are deeply skeptical of the mainstream media, but DeSantis’s argument that the media is “in the tank” for Trump might be a stretch for Republicans who have spent the last eight years believing the media was out to get Trump.
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

One thing that seems tricky right now — maybe not trickier than it has been for the whole primary contest — is that the main reason to have a Trump alternative is for a scenario in which he physically can't campaign because he's in court so much, he actually gets convicted before the RNC (unlikely, but I guess not impossible) or some other major contingency like that. Then, you'll want a Trump substitute. But Haley, for example, has been running as a Trump alternative. Nothing in the process is really conducive to such a fine distinction, even if it were clear that a critical mass of Republicans were invested in either a substitute or an alternative.
—Julia Azari, 538 contributor

To answer your question, Julia, maybe anti-Trump Republicans will coalesce around a single alternative this time (perhaps because they have no choice — it’s possible that DeSantis will drop out after tonight and Haley will be the only Trump critic left). But even if they do, I don’t think it will matter, simply because there are very few anti-Trump Republicans left in the party. Over the past eight years, that breed of Republican has largely limped into retirement or lost in primary or general elections, and the new GOP establishment that replaced them has lined up behind Trump’s campaign. He has more endorsements at this point in the cycle than all but a handful of past candidates.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Julia, I think 2024 is just such a different ballgame than 2016, because now most Republican primary voters like Trump and want him to be president. His image rating is a sky-high 78 percent favorable/19 percent unfavorable among Republicans.. Back in early 2016, he was not as popular — an ABC/Washington Post poll from 8 years ago pegged his favorability among Republicans at just 57 percent and falling. There was not only a sizable anti-Trump contingent in the party back then, one with a lot of establishment clout and resources, but also a sizable number of voters really didn’t want Trump to be the nominee. That’s gone, and with it I think any chance at strategic consolidation like Kasich, Cruz and Rubio tried in 2016.
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

Trump gave a victory speech to supporters in Iowa at about 10:30 p.m., and spent an uncharacteristically long time talking about other people. He thanked his supporters, his family, and even his opponents. It took several minutes for him to pivot to his target for the night: Biden, and, in doing so, he picked up the mantle of presumptive nominee.

Here, he listed some of the themes of his campaign, immigration and increasing energy production. He borrowed a phrase from former vice presidential candidate and Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and said, "Drill, baby, drill." (He even made a joke about electric vehicles.) In talking about immigration he repeated a number of falsehoods about a border that's out of control and immigrants coming in from "insane asylums," echoing some of the themes from his 2016 campaign launch.

In truth, Biden has ramped up deportations, deporting more families and children than Trump did in his last year in office. But border crossings have surged regardless, Republican voters care a lot about immigration, and voters trust Republicans more on the issue. In a reversal of 2020, Trump is poised to be a challenger instead of an incumbent president in this round, and he's already throwing punches.
—Monica Potts, 538