ABC News projects that Trump will win the Iowa Republican caucuses. This surprises absolutely no one, given that Trump had a more than 30-point lead in 538's Iowa polling average heading into tonight's event. However, the drama tonight wasn't about Trump's outcome, but second place: Can Haley jump ahead of DeSantis and set herself up for a nice result ahead of New Hampshire's primary, where she's stronger? Or will DeSantis pull off a comeback story of sorts by grabbing the silver medal? Stay tuned!

Who will benefit from cold-induced low turnout? I'm not actually sure. Trump seems like the simplest answer. There are a couple of ways to think about this — it seems intuitive that the cold could be more of a deterrent for older voters, but I don't know that there's much evidence for that. The other consideration is whether one of the candidates is more dependent on low-propensity voters — those with less consistent voting histories. Historically, these voters have been Trump's bread and butter.

Trump might benefit from low turnout, but I've also been thinking about Trump's support from first-time caucusgoers. Will they stick with it and show up? He's also traditionally relied on support in rural areas, and I wonder if there will be travel concerns on unplowed back roads. At the same time, he has the enthusiasm, as others have noted.

I agree that Trump is probably the beneficiary of the extreme cold given how devoted his supporters are, but I wonder also if Haley will disproportionately lose out. There’s been a lot of reporting about how she’s been attracting some support from independents and even Democrats. If you’re a Democrat trying to make a Haley bank shot, I feel like you’re probably less likely to venture out in this weather than someone with a greater connection and obligation to the Republican Party. It’s probably a small slice of potential caucus-goers, but it could make a difference.

Trump gave a victory speech to supporters in Iowa at about 10:30 p.m., and spent an uncharacteristically long time talking about other people. He thanked his supporters, his family, and even his opponents. It took several minutes for him to pivot to his target for the night: Biden, and, in doing so, he picked up the mantle of presumptive nominee.

Here, he listed some of the themes of his campaign, immigration and increasing energy production. He borrowed a phrase from former vice presidential candidate and Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and said, "Drill, baby, drill." (He even made a joke about electric vehicles.) In talking about immigration he repeated a number of falsehoods about a border that's out of control and immigrants coming in from "insane asylums," echoing some of the themes from his 2016 campaign launch.

In truth, Biden has ramped up deportations, deporting more families and children than Trump did in his last year in office. But border crossings have surged regardless, Republican voters care a lot about immigration, and voters trust Republicans more on the issue. In a reversal of 2020, Trump is poised to be a challenger instead of an incumbent president in this round, and he's already throwing punches.
—Monica Potts, 538